The recent diplomatic engagement between Egypt and Turkey is being tested by the Libya crisis, centered on the Central Bank’s upheaval. Sadiq Al-Kabir’s removal has exacerbated tensions, prompting economic instability with severe implications for Libya. Both nations, despite their historical rivalry, find themselves compelled to cooperate to stabilize Libya, driven by economic interests and border security concerns, potentially reshaping regional alliances.
The recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey is being subjected to a significant test due to the ongoing crisis affecting the Central Bank of Libya. The years 2022 and 2023 witnessed critical high-level visits between officials from the two nations, marking an end to over ten years of diplomatic strife and indicating a potential shift in regional alignments and cooperation. However, the situation in Libya poses a complex challenge as both nations have historically championed rival factions: Egypt supporting the eastern militias led by Khalifa Haftar, while Turkey has backed the Tripoli-based government. The overhaul of the central bank’s leadership, prompted by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh’s actions against Sadiq Al-Kabir, has exacerbated tensions. Al-Kabir’s exile to Turkey, following threats against his life, underscores the precariousness of Libya’s political landscape. His removal coincides with accusations of financial mismanagement, leading to severe disruptions in Libya’s oil output which is vital for the country’s economy. This turmoil disrupted supply chains and compounded the existing financial crisis in Libya, affecting vital imports, including food, and raising inflation and income insecurity. As the U.S. Treasury’s advisory discourages international bank transactions with Libya’s central bank, the risk of economic isolation looms and poses significant repercussions for Libya’s already fragile economy. Egypt is particularly concerned about the implications of Libya’s instability on its border security and economic health, especially given its own recovery efforts from recent economic turmoil facilitated by investments from Turkey and the UAE. The alignment of interests between Egypt and Turkey regarding Libya suggests a potential for coordinated action to stabilize the region. Both nations appear motivated by mutual economic benefits, as they are deeply involved in Libya’s reconstruction efforts—Egypt with its substantial reconstruction projects and Turkey investing in infrastructure and energy sectors in the region. Moreover, the renegotiation of their longstanding rivalries may hinge on their ability to manage the underlying economic stakes in Libya. Both President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have indicated willingness to overcome past enmities, emphasizing a collaborative approach to resolve Libya’s leadership disputes and restore economic stability. However, this cooperation is fraught with complexities owing to historical grievances and entrenched interests among Libyan factions, which remain wary of external influence from both countries. Despite this, there is a glimmer of optimism as discussed by Aguila Saleh, the Speaker of the House of Representatives in Libya, who acknowledges the potential for this detente to benefit Libyan discourse and leadership disputes positively. The ongoing Libya crisis represents a critical turning point for Egypt and Turkey to demonstrate the resilience of their bilateral relations. Successfully navigating the complexities of this crisis could not only cement their positions as influential actors in the Middle East but also align their geopolitical interests strategically. As both leaders seek to bolster their economic standings, particularly in light of external aid opportunities from the EU concerning migration control, the forthcoming weeks will significantly test their diplomatic resolve and partnership amidst international scrutiny.
The geopolitical dynamics between Egypt and Turkey have been historically marked by rivalry, particularly regarding the situation in Libya, where both nations have supported opposing factions. Egypt, in alliance with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia, has backed the eastern-based Libyan National Army, while Turkey has provided military and diplomatic support to the Government of National Unity in the west. The relationship began to thaw with recent direct diplomatic engagements between President Erdogan and President El-Sisi, indicative of a shift towards cooperation amidst common interests in stabilizing the region and enhancing economic ties stemming from Libya’s reconstruction needs.
The crisis in Libya presents both a challenge and an opportunity for Egypt and Turkey to prove their diplomatic mettle in fostering stability in a region marked by conflict. The successful navigation of this situation has the potential to redefine their relationship from one of rivalry to mutual cooperation, which would also serve their economic interests and enhance regional security. Attention will be on how effectively they can reconcile their historical differences and work jointly towards a stable future for Libya during this critical period.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
