Guinea-Bissau’s elections on 24 November are threatened by institutional illegitimacy and political tensions following President Embaló’s dissolution of the National People’s Assembly. With the National Elections Commission and Supreme Court unable to function effectively, there is a risk of entrenching political fragility. Dialogue among political stakeholders is crucial, while a postponement of elections may create space for necessary reforms to restore legitimacy and ensure credible electoral proceedings.
On 24 November, new representatives will be elected to the National People’s Assembly of Guinea-Bissau (Assembleia Nacional Popular da Guiné-Bissau, or ANP). Normally, these elections would foster the country’s democratic progression and political stability; however, they are being overseen by institutions perceived to lack legitimacy. This situation, combined with recent political tensions, raises concerns that the elections may further entrench Guinea-Bissau’s institutional fragility. The urgency for these elections arises following President Umaro Embaló’s contentious dissolution of the ANP in December last year. The ANP had previously been dominated by the Inclusive Alliance Platform (PAI)-Terra Ranka coalition, spearheaded by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC), which secured a decisive majority with 54 of the 102 seats in the June 2023 legislative elections. This dissolution marks the second occasion on which Mr. Embaló has disbanded the ANP, the first incident occurring in May 2022. Both actions seemingly aimed to alter the institutional power balance that constrained the President’s authority. The rationale for the latest dissolution was officially attributed to conflicts involving the National Guard and the special forces of the Presidential Guard, identified by Mr. Embaló as an “attempted coup.” The prior dissolution was precipitated by Parliament’s refusal to lift the immunity of certain deputies, including PAIGC President Domingos Pereira. As the elections approach, Guinea-Bissau continues to grapple with significant institutional deficiencies and political strife, which jeopardize the integrity of the electoral process. A critical issue is the questionable legitimacy of the Comissão Nacional de Eleições (National Elections Commission, or CNE), whose leadership’s mandate had expired in April 2022 without renewal. This stasis can be attributed to two factors: the government’s desire for control over the CNE, and the ANP’s inability to elect new members for its administrative positions due to dissolution. The ANP’s Standing Committee could theoretically elect members of the CNE, yet its operations are hampered by the government’s control over the ANP leadership, which was modified when Mr. Pereira was replaced by Adja Satú Pinto – a current ally of Mr. Embaló. The paralysis of the Supreme Court further complicates matters. Its role includes reviewing the eligibility of political candidates and confirming election outcomes, yet since the forced resignation of its president, José Sambu, it has been rendered ineffective. Additionally, the suspension of six out of the twelve judges limits the Court’s capacity to convene and resolve electoral disputes. To remedy this dysfunction, the interim president of the Supreme Court has established a technical committee for candidate verification. However, the effectiveness of this committee is contingent upon the backing of involved political entities, amid existing concerns regarding the relationship between Mr. Embaló and the interim president. Should the Court reject any candidacies from opposition leaders, it may appear as a deliberate effort to marginalize political challengers ahead of both legislative and presidential elections, especially since Mr. Embaló has publicly stated that certain opposition figures will not be his successor. In light of these challenges, neither the CNE nor the Supreme Court can effectively manage or supervise the upcoming legislative elections. To mitigate escalating political turmoil, it would be prudent for Mr. Embaló to engage with political and institutional stakeholders to cultivate a broad consensus aimed at restoring institutional normalcy. This dialogue is increasingly critical as tensions rise concerning the end of Mr. Embaló’s term and the scheduling of future presidential elections, particularly with certain opposition parties suggesting that the current president will forfeit his position after his constitutional term ends on 27 February 2025. As the election date approaches, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) should facilitate the establishment of conditions conducive to peaceful and credible elections. The option of postponing the legislative elections may provide an opportunity to address institutional dysfunctions and enhance legitimacy in the electoral process, thereby fostering the requisite trust among political parties as they negotiate the timing of future elections. Such a strategy could ultimately prevent further erosion of the president’s legitimacy following the conclusion of his term, mitigating the risk of exacerbating existing institutional fragility.
The context of Guinea-Bissau’s upcoming elections is complex and troubled by significant political and institutional challenges. The elections, set for 24 November, are a response to the dissolution of the National People’s Assembly by President Umaro Embaló, a move that has led to increased political tensions and questions about the legitimacy of the institutions conducting the elections. The National Elections Commission lacks a properly elected leadership due to expired mandates, and the Supreme Court is paralyzed, unable to function effectively ahead of crucial electoral duties. These shortcomings highlight the precariousness of the electoral process and the potential for intensified political crises in Guinea-Bissau.
In summary, the upcoming elections in Guinea-Bissau face significant challenges stemming from institutional dysfunction and political tensions, which could jeopardize their credibility. The legitimacy of the National Elections Commission and the Supreme Court is in question, necessitating urgent reforms to bolster trust in these bodies. Engagement and consensus-building among political actors, supported by ECOWAS, are essential for ensuring a stable and credible electoral process that avoids further institutional decay and maintains democratic integrity in the country.
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