The article discusses the escalating tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), detailing Egypt’s strategic maneuvers in the region, including alliances with Somalia and Eritrea. It highlights the historical context of outdated treaties governing Nile waters and proposes that a shift towards diplomacy is necessary to avoid conflict. The article emphasizes the growing dissatisfaction among local militias in Ethiopia and the broader implications of regional power dynamics.
The tensions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) have intensified, with Egypt adopting a more aggressive stance towards Ethiopia. Egypt’s alignment with Somalia and its covert partnership with Eritrea represent a strategic coalition aimed at countering Ethiopia’s influence, as the GERD plays a pivotal role in Ethiopia’s economic progress, contributing to over 85% of the Nile’s water flow. Egypt’s reliance on antiquated treaties from 1929 and 1959 fails to accommodate the current political landscape and the needs of upstream nations like Ethiopia. This reliance upon outdated agreements, combined with alterations in regional alliances and growing tensions, heightens the risk of conflict over shared Nile waters. From July 2014 until August 2022, Egypt maintained alliances with South Sudan and Uganda to bolster its strategy against Ethiopia, yet faced significant challenges in its operations in South Sudan due to local opposition, particularly from the Nuer community, which has historical ties with Ethiopia. More recently, shifts in alliances have emerged, as Somalia and Eritrea have united in their opposition to Ethiopia for two fundamental reasons. First, the agreement between Somaliland—an unrecognized autonomous region within Somalia—and Ethiopia has raised alarms within the Somali government, which perceives this deal as a potential threat to its territorial integrity. Consequently, Somalia has threatened military intervention to thwart Ethiopia’s access to these strategic seaports located in Somaliland. Second, the dissatisfaction of the Fano militia—a nationalist armed group from Ethiopia’s Amhara region—towards the peace agreement reached in November 2022 between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has resulted in the militia’s alignment with Eritrea. The Fano militia, feeling abandoned by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reform agenda, has established a base in Eritrea, receiving military training and support, indicating a larger pattern of regional discontent towards Ethiopia’s political maneuvers. In light of these developments, Cairo perceives an opportunity to increase pressure on Ethiopia, providing military support to Somalia and assisting the Fano militia through Eritrea. Meanwhile, Ethiopia has proactively responded by suspending flights to Eritrea as tensions escalate, marking a pivot in air travel and diplomatic relations. It is essential to recognize that Egypt’s strategy against the GERD is not a recent phenomenon but traces back to Ethiopia’s announcement of the dam’s construction in 2011. However, renewed tensions escalated following Abiy Ahmed’s ascension to the premiership in 2018. For a peaceful resolution, Egypt must prioritize negotiations that consider the interests of all involved parties, as perpetuation of colonial-era agreements will likely exacerbate regional friction. Favoring dialogue over proxy conflicts through external forces like Somalia and Eritrea is the only pathway toward a sustainable and mutually beneficial arrangement between Cairo and Addis Ababa.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has become a flashpoint in the geopolitics of the Nile River, crucial for the livelihoods of millions in both Ethiopia and Egypt. Egypt’s historical claims to Nile waters are rooted in treaties established during colonial times, which do not accommodate the rising needs of upstream countries such as Ethiopia, contributing significantly to the growing tensions. The situation has been exacerbated by Ethiopia’s advancements in building the dam, which Egypt interprets as a direct threat to its water security. Furthermore, shifting regional alliances complicate this already intricate scenario, as nations like Somalia and Eritrea respond to Ethiopia’s growing influence, leading to a precarious balance in the region.
In summary, the ongoing tensions over the GERD underscore the urgent need for an updated framework governing Nile water usage that accommodates the rights and developmental aspirations of all riparian states. The alignment of Egypt with Somalia and Eritrea in opposition to Ethiopia reflects a broader geopolitical struggle that, if left unresolved, risks escalating into military confrontations. A strategic shift towards constructive negotiations is essential to forge a sustainable future for all nations dependent on the Nile’s resources.
Original Source: www.radiotamazuj.org
