Egyptian President al-Sisi’s visit to Eritrea coincides with efforts to establish a tripartite military alliance with Eritrea and Somalia, raising concerns about regional stability. Tensions have escalated between Ethiopia and Eritrea, complicating diplomatic relations. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s efforts to maintain influence in the region are challenged by Egypt’s military support to Somalia and the contentious GERD project.
In a significant diplomatic development, Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has embarked on a visit to Eritrea at the invitation of President Isaias Afwerki. This visit coincides with ongoing efforts by Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia to form a tripartite military alliance, which raises pertinent questions regarding the implications for regional stability. Discussions during this visit are anticipated to encompass critical issues such as peace initiatives within the Horn of Africa, security in the Red Sea, and various bilateral and regional matters. The potential alliance is particularly noteworthy amid a period of escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa. Once characterized by a progressive relationship, the ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea have soured in recent times, highlighted by the suspension of flights and communication links. This diplomatic rift suggests an increasingly adversarial stance that could threaten Ethiopia’s influence in the region. Historically, Ethiopia has been a key player in fostering cooperation among Eritrea and Somalia. In light of his peace efforts, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. However, the unfolding dynamics present a stark contrast to Ethiopia’s earlier relationships. With heightened military support from Egypt to Somalia, Ethiopia perceives this as a direct affront to its regional authority, exacerbating the fragile relations it has with Somalia. Adding further complexity to the regional atmosphere is Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), nearing its completion. This project has long been a contentious issue for Egypt, which fears a reduction in its share of Nile waters. Conversely, Ethiopia views GERD as a critical asset for its economic advancement and energy independence. The rising military collaboration between Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea complicates the existing disputes surrounding the dam and regional power structures. Amid these tensions, ongoing discussions are taking place in Asmara, where Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud convene with President Afwerki. Their agenda includes addressing a spectrum of regional concerns, with aspirations of defusing the underlying conflicts that currently strain their relations. The evolving military alliances signify an isolation for Ethiopia, which has historically played a central role in regional diplomacy. The ongoing disconnection with Eritrea underscores the fragility of Ethiopia’s position in a landscape that is swiftly modifying alongside the activities of its former allies. As President al-Sisi, President Afwerki, and President Mahmoud navigate the talks, Ethiopia’s future role remains ambiguous, posing challenges for the Horn of Africa’s political equilibrium.
The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa is experiencing significant transformation, primarily influenced by the shifting alliances among regional states. Egypt’s diplomatic maneuvers with Eritrea and Somalia highlight the changing dynamics, especially given Ethiopia’s once-prominent role in fostering cooperation among these countries. The historical backdrop includes the 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which initially paved the way for improved relations and prompted international recognition of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s efforts. However, the recent resumption of tensions complicates these established relationships, particularly as Ethiopia grapples with domestic political challenges and external pressures related to the GERD.
In summary, the visit of President al-Sisi to Eritrea amidst rising regional tensions reflects a critical moment for the Horn of Africa, emphasizing the potential realignment of power among key states. As Ethiopia finds itself increasingly marginalized due to the formation of new military alliances, the region’s stability hangs in the balance. The ongoing discussions between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia will likely play a pivotal role in determining the future geopolitical landscape and Ethiopia’s response to these developments.
Original Source: addisinsight.net
