Eritrea hosted a trilateral meeting with Somalia and Egypt on October 10, 2023, to discuss countering interference from Ethiopia amidst rising tensions. The leaders emphasized enhancing cooperation to combat terrorism and maintain territorial integrity. Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland has aggravated regional relations, prompting military support from Egypt to Somalia. While direct military confrontation is currently unlikely, the evolving dynamics present concerning trends in regional stability.
On October 10, 2023, Eritrea’s long-standing leader, Isaias Afwerki, convened a trilateral summit in Asmara with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. The meeting was characterized by discussions centered on unifying regional allies to counter perceived external interference affecting internal matters in the Horn of Africa. A joint statement released after the meeting emphasized the leaders’ commitment to enhance cooperation, particularly aimed at strengthening Somali state institutions to effectively address terrorism, safeguard territorial integrity, and maintain control over land and sea borders. This trilateral meeting is set against a backdrop of increasing tensions among Eritrea, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Relations have soured further since Ethiopia entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the self-declared republic of Somaliland earlier this year, which has been viewed as an affront by Somalia that claims Somaliland as part of its territory. Ethiopia’s offer to recognize Somaliland’s independence in exchange for access to a coastal strip for establishing a naval base has exacerbated these tensions, prompting Egypt to intervene by exerting pressure on Ethiopia. This engagement stems from longstanding disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which poses a significant concern for Egyptian water security. In a strategic move, Egypt has bolstered its military cooperation with Somalia, sending weapons and suggesting the deployment of troops to take the place of Ethiopian soldiers currently combating Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Somalia has additionally threatened to expel Ethiopian military forces if the MoU with Somaliland is not annulled by the end of the year. Eritrea’s deeply rooted grievances against Ethiopia add another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics. Although Eritrea once allied with the Ethiopian government during the Tigray Civil War, it now finds itself at odds with Ethiopia, particularly in light of its peace agreement with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) signed in late 2022. Afwerki fears potential Ethiopian ambitions to reclaim Eritrean ports, leading to predictions of imminent conflicts within the region. Experts observe that while rhetorical hostilities are on the rise, tangible military confrontations are unlikely in the short term due to Somalia’s current vulnerabilities, Egypt’s domestic challenges, and Eritrea’s ongoing recovery from its recent conflict. Analysts suggest that the situation is characterized more by diplomacy than by military posturing at present. Nonetheless, there is a sense of foreboding regarding future relations, particularly between Eritrea and Ethiopia, as the earlier rapprochement is in jeopardy, thus reentering a ‘no war, no peace’ scenario.
The situation in the Horn of Africa, particularly involving Eritrea, Somalia, and Ethiopia, remains volatile due to historical rivalries and recent geopolitical developments. Eritrea’s leadership, wary of Ethiopian intentions following the recent MoU with Somaliland, aims to forge stronger alliances against Ethiopia. The ongoing disputes over territorial integrity and military cooperation reflect a struggle for power and influence within the region, influenced heavily by historical grievances, particularly from the Eritrean perspective after the civil war with Tigray. Egypt’s involvement, particularly concerning the GERD and military support to Somalia, further complicates the already delicate relationships among these nations. This convergence of interests suggests a precarious balancing act in regional diplomacy.
In summary, the recent trilateral summit in Asmara signifies a concerted effort among Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt to align against Ethiopia amid rising tensions stemming from territorial disputes and historical enmities. Despite the absence of immediate military confrontation, the rhetoric and the formation of alliances indicate a troubling trend in regional relations. The potential for conflict remains, especially as the political landscape continues to evolve in response to external pressures and internal dynamics stemming from historical conflicts and ambitions.
Original Source: www.theafricareport.com
