Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia are establishing a security alliance against Ethiopia, formed during a recent meeting in Asmara. The agreement aims to strengthen Somali military capabilities against internal challenges and potential threats from al-Shabab. This collaboration increases regional tensions, particularly regarding Ethiopia’s influence and the ongoing existential threats in the area. The alliance’s implications could lead to domestic instability in Somalia and potential conflicts with Ethiopia.
In a concerning development in the Horn of Africa, an emerging alliance comprising Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia has agreed to form a security partnership aimed at countering Ethiopia’s regional influence under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This coalition solidified during a meeting hosted by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, where joint initiatives were outlined to bolster Somali state institutions and enhance military capabilities against terrorism, particularly in light of the ongoing threats posed by the al-Shabab militant group. Following the Egyptian president’s inaugural visit to Asmara, Egypt has begun supplying arms to Somalia, further entrenching a strategic partnership that also aims to replace Ethiopian peacekeepers with Egyptian forces in Somalia. The geopolitical dynamics are further complicated by Ethiopia’s recent decision to lease territory in Somaliland, a move that has drawn ire from Somalia. This new axis is also connected with the unfolding crisis in Sudan, where the interests of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia align with foreign influences, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Turkey, in support of the Sudanese military against rebel factions backed by Ethiopia and the UAE. Despite a recent peace alliance between Ethiopia and Eritrea, tensions are poised to escalate with Eritrean interests still focused on undermining Ethiopian influence in the region. Domestic concerns within Somalia suggest that this alignment may incite further instability, potentially inflaming existing clan tensions and inviting proxy conflicts, likely exacerbating the already fragile security situation as Somali forces grapple with the resurgence of al-Shabab. Critics are wary that Egypt’s support of Somalia, in partnership with Eritrea, may inadvertently strengthen extremist groups as they capitalize on an increasingly polarized socio-political landscape. As the three-state partnership develops, the potential for increased conflict with Ethiopia looms, casting a shadow over regional peace and stability.
The Horn of Africa has historically been a region of geopolitical contention, with various nations vying for influence over critical waterways and resources. Tension between Egypt and Ethiopia has been particularly pronounced over the management of the Nile River, especially in light of Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Egypt views as a threat to its water security. The complex relationships among these nations are exacerbated by internal conflicts, as in the cases of Somali federal structure challenges and ongoing instability in Sudan. The involvement of external powers such as Turkey and the UAE further complicates the dynamics, prompting shifts in allegiance and military engagements.
The formation of a military alliance among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia marks a critical juncture in the Horn of Africa, as it poses significant implications for regional stability. The partnership aims to counter Ethiopian influence but risks further entrenching conflicts within Somalia and with its neighbors. As these nations navigate their fraught relationships and internal divisions, the potential for escalated violence remains a grave concern. Monitoring this alliance will be essential to assess its impact on both immediate and broader regional security dynamics.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
