Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia have formed a new security alliance directed against Ethiopia, following concerns over Ethiopia’s actions in the region. The coalition seeks to bolster Somali institutions against terrorism, and Egypt’s military support to Somalia adds complexity to existing territorial disputes. This emerging coalition may have implications for regional stability, particularly concerning the activities of al-Shabab and Ethiopia’s relations with neighboring countries.
An alarming coalition is emerging in the Horn of Africa, as Egypt has aligned with Eritrea and Somalia to counter what they perceive as aggressive actions by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Asmara, where they formalized a security partnership aimed at enhancing Somali state institutions to confront various challenges, including terrorism. This alliance follows Egypt’s recent military support to Somalia and a contentious leasing agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which Somalia claims as its territory. Abiy Ahmed has pointed to Ethiopia’s historical claim to the Red Sea despite Djibouti providing an alternative port. Egypt, meanwhile, disputes the implications of Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam on Nile water security, escalating tensions in the region. The situation is further complicated by the ongoing civil war in Sudan, where Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia are reportedly backing the Sudanese army, while Ethiopia maintains ties with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Additionally, Egypt and its allies have signaled their intent to secure critical shipping routes in the Horn of Africa, exacerbating regional rivalries. While Ethiopia and Eritrea, once adversaries, have cooperated against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, Eritrea’s lingering animosity and military posture continue to pose risks of renewed conflict. Concerns are mounting that Somalia’s invitation for foreign military assistance may provoke deeper clan divisions within its fragile federal structure. Critics warn that this newly formed axis could bolster groups like al-Shabab, providing militants with ideological fuel against the Somali government. Experts cite Abiy’s reluctance to choose between peace and conflict as a potential catalyst for instability, suggesting that this alliance may lead to further escalation in an already volatile region.
The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa has been increasingly complicated by historical grievances and contemporary power struggles. The recent formation of an alliance consisting of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia underscores their collective apprehensions regarding Ethiopia’s assertive policies in the region. Ethiopia’s attempt to access the Red Sea via a leasing agreement with Somaliland has raised the ire of Somalia and intensified Egypt’s security concerns regarding Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Cairo views as a threat to its water supplies. This evolving narrative reveals the interplay between historical territorial disputes, military alliances, and regional stability, and sets the stage for potential conflicts as these nations navigate their conflicting interests.
In conclusion, the recent alliance between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia represents a significant shift in regional dynamics as these nations unite against perceived Ethiopian aggressions. With a complex backdrop of historical conflicts, current military maneuvers, and external influences, the potential for escalation remains high. As each country navigates its strategic interests, the consequences of this alliance could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa, heightening risks of renewed conflicts and protracted instability within the region. It is essential for regional stakeholders to pursue dialogue and collaborative security frameworks to prevent further deterioration of the situation and to promote peace and unity.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
