As of Thursday, October 31, 2024, there are three areas of potential tropical development being monitored, including one in the southwestern Caribbean Sea with a medium chance of forming into a tropical depression this weekend, and another area near Puerto Rico with low chances of development. The North Atlantic also shows a non-tropical system. Historical data reveals three hurricanes made landfall in Florida in November since 1851.
This report provides an update on potential tropical developments as of Thursday, October 31, 2024, particularly focusing on regions affecting Southwest Florida. Currently, there are three notable areas of interest for tropical storm formation: one in the North Atlantic and two in the Caribbean. 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A region of low pressure is anticipated to develop in the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next few days. This may progress into a tropical depression by the weekend or early next week as the system shifts generally northward or northwestward. The forecast indicates the possibility of significant rainfall in areas from Nicaragua southeastward, extending to northern Colombia, regardless of tropical formation. – Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10 percent). – Formation chance through 7 days: Medium (60 percent). 2. Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure situated near Puerto Rico is generating cloudiness and precipitation across the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the surrounding northern regions. Though slow development is possible over the next few days, this system is expected to integrate with the low-pressure area in the Caribbean. Heavy rainfall is likely across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas irrespective of further development. – Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10 percent). – Formation chance through 7 days: Low (10 percent). The GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts suggest a merging of these low-pressure systems, with a potential for tropical depression formation this weekend or early next week. Furthermore, the evolving weather models indicate a possible track into the Gulf of Mexico the following week, although predictions remain uncertain due to varying factors such as the positioning of high-pressure ridges and the dynamics of approaching cold fronts. The next designated name for a potential storm would be “Patty.” Historically, only three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida during November since 1851: – 1935 Miami Hurricane: Landfall in Miami with winds of 100 mph. – 1985 Hurricane Kate: Landfall in Mexico Beach with winds of 100 mph, marking the latest hurricane to make landfall in U.S. history (November 21). – 2022 Hurricane Nicole: Landfall in Vero Beach with winds of 75 mph. 3. North Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms have emerged near the center of a non-tropical low pressure system about 550 miles west of the Azores. Additional development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is expected to be slow as the system drifts eastward in the coming days. – Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (20 percent). – Formation chance through 7 days: Low (20 percent). The hurricane season concludes on November 30. Although the current weather patterns indicate a transition into the “dry season,” it remains vital for residents to stay updated on the evolving tropical conditions and to monitor any significant changes closely.
The focus of this report is on potential tropical developments impacting the region known as Southwest Florida, given the likelihood of storms forming in the Caribbean and the North Atlantic. Seasonal hurricane activity typically peaks in the late summer and early fall, but occurrences in the late fall are not unusual. Understanding the formation and progression of tropical storms is crucial for regional preparedness and safety.
In conclusion, as of October 31, 2024, there are significant developments being monitored in the tropics, particularly in the southwestern Caribbean and the northeastern Caribbean Sea. While some areas indicate potential formation of tropical systems, the chances are currently low, with short-term forecasts suggesting gradual developments. Historical context shows that November has produced few hurricanes impacting Florida, underscoring the need for ongoing vigilance as the hurricane season nears its conclusion on November 30.
Original Source: www.fox4now.com
