The Roanoke College Poll indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 10 points (51%-41%) among likely voters in Virginia, while Senator Tim Kaine leads Hung Cao (51%-40%) in the Senate race. Major issues include the economy (43%) and abortion (20%). The poll features a low undecided voter rate (2%), with 85% of those yet to vote expressing certainty about their choice. Voter confidence remains high, alongside challenges facing Trump in a state where early voting may favor Democrats.
According to the latest Roanoke College Poll conducted just days before the 2024 Elections, Vice President Kamala Harris has established a solid lead over former President Donald Trump in Virginia, demonstrating a 10-point advantage with 51% to 41%. Among other candidates, Independent Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver both garnered 2% of voter support, while Jill Stein from the Green Party secured 1%. In the closely watched U.S. Senate race, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is leading his Republican opponent, Hung Cao, by a margin of 51% to 40%. The polling data, obtained from interviews with 851 likely registered voters in Virginia, was collected between October 25 and October 29, 2024, and features a margin of error of ±4.6%. The poll indicates that only 2% of respondents are undecided, and a similar figure plans to vote for candidates not listed on the ballot. Notably, 47% of likely voters are very confident in their voting decision, while 40% indicate they have already cast their votes, and 24% plan to vote ahead of Election Day. A significant majority (85%) of those yet to vote express a high degree of certainty regarding their choice, with 66% feeling very enthusiastic about participating in the election. When asked about key issues, 43% identified the economy as the most pressing concern, followed by abortion at 20%, and immigration at 12%. Perceptions of candidate competencies reveal that Harris garners a substantial degree of trust regarding abortion policy (57% versus Trump’s 36%). However, the candidates appear evenly matched on immigration, with both at 48%, while Harris slightly edges Trump on crime and foreign policy. Conversely, Trump is perceived as more effective on economic issues with 49% approval against Harris’s 46%. Responses regarding candidate empathy reveal that 46% of voters believe Harris understands their needs, compared to just 37% for Trump. Opinions on the government’s role exhibit a division, with 44% perceiving the federal government as detrimental to their lives versus 40% viewing it positively. In evaluations of leadership, about 46% of voters believe Virginia is on the right path while a striking 64% believe the country is not. President Biden’s job approval sits at 38%, increasing slightly since August. The favorability ratings for federal officials are generally negative, with Trump at 38% favorable and 54% unfavorable, and Biden at 37% favorable and 50% unfavorable. Harris’s rating is narrowly negative at 45% favorable compared to 46% unfavorable, signaling some improvement from previous polls. Senator Tim Kaine maintains a more favorable view (39% favorable vs. 33% unfavorable), whereas Hung Cao is in positive territory (28% favorable vs. 24% unfavorable), though half of voters remain undecided about him. Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR, commented on the implications of the poll, stating “Kamala Harris has increased the slim lead she held in the August Roanoke College Poll. She is claiming 95% of Democrats and leads 49%-36% among independents. Trump is supported by 90% of Republicans, but that might not be enough for him to win in Virginia.” He also noted the challenges that Trump faces with few undecided voters remaining and the potential for Democrats to leverage early voting in their favor.
The Roanoke College Poll serves as a crucial indicator of voter sentiment leading up to the 2024 elections in Virginia. Conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, this poll sheds light on the shifting political landscape as candidates from both major parties vie for the support of likely voters. The significance of this poll lies not only in its timely release but also in its capacity to influence campaign strategies as candidates respond to the emerging trends and public opinion. The context of these findings is shaped by the ongoing political dynamics and pressing issues that voters prioritize this election cycle.
The Roanoke College Poll reveals that Kamala Harris holds a decisive lead over Donald Trump among likely voters in Virginia, coupled with strong support for Tim Kaine in the Senate race. While enthusiasm remains high among voters, concerns about the economy dominate discourse, underscoring the complexities of voter sentiment. As both parties prepare for the final stretch leading to Election Day, this data provides pivotal insights into the electoral landscape, particularly regarding the trust voters place in candidates to address their key concerns.
Original Source: www.roanoke.edu
