With Donald Trump set to re-enter the presidency, China is positioning itself to assume leadership in climate diplomacy. At COP29 in Azerbaijan, China displayed a cooperative attitude and shared its international climate financing efforts while resisting donor reclassification pressures. Experts note the potential implications for US-China relations and global climate commitments amidst Trump’s skepticism of climate change.
As Donald Trump prepares for a return to the presidency, it is anticipated that the United States will withdraw from international climate diplomacy, thereby allowing China to position itself as a leader in this crucial area. At the COP29 climate discussions in Azerbaijan, China has adopted a cooperative stance, providing details concerning its international climate financing for the first time while firmly rejecting reclassification as a donor nation, a move that would introduce greater scrutiny into its environmental contributions. The approach taken by China reflects a marked contrast to its previous assertive posture in international relations, as observed during the earlier COP28 talks in Dubai. At that time, China and former US envoy John Kerry had managed to collaborate on a significant initiative encouraging a global transition away from fossil fuels. However, the warm relations between the United States and China are unlikely to endure following Trump’s inauguration on January 20, particularly given his critical stance toward climate change. Belinda Schaepe, a senior analyst on China, noted that Trump’s administration presents an opportunity for China to assert itself as a more responsible global entity. She emphasized that if China were to make more ambitious commitments regarding financial aid and emissions reductions aimed at 2035, it would bolster its reputation on the world stage. At COP29, discussions were centered on urging wealthier nations to exceed the current goal of providing $100 billion annually to assist developing nations devastated by climate change consequences. China has consistently resisted Western pressure for a donor classification, citing the need for transparency in its financial contributions. During the proceedings in Baku, Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang confirmed that China has committed $24.5 billion to international climate finance since 2016, with German negotiator Jennifer Morgan acknowledging this contribution but stressing the requirement for greater transparency. The issue of classification for China as a developing nation remains contentious. Several nations, including Colombia, believe that all countries, including China, should contribute based on their capabilities. Despite this, concerns have been raised about China’s political maneuvering in light of Trump’s potential withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, suggesting that other nations would have to step into the climate leadership vacuum. China’s motivation for prioritizing climate action is rooted in its own environmental challenges and its emergence as a key player in clean energy sectors. Experts predict an escalation in tensions between the United States and China, as well as turbulence in China-EU relations, following Trump’s return to office. Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute indicated that, while international relations may worsen, there is a possibility that negotiations could become less contentious due to the extreme positions typically adopted by the US.
The political landscape regarding global climate diplomacy is heavily influenced by the leadership decisions in major emitting countries, notably the United States and China. With the U.S. historically wielding significant influence in international climate negotiations, the potential withdrawal of the U.S. from these discussions under Trump’s administration presents a unique opportunity for China to assert its role as a leader in climate policy. Moreover, China’s commitment to climate financing and sustainable energy positions it dynamically within these discussions, especially against the backdrop of its historical emissions and current climate challenges.
In conclusion, as Donald Trump returns to the presidency, China is poised to capitalize on the opportunity to lead in climate diplomacy, positioning itself as a more responsible global power. The COP29 climate talks illustrate China’s intent to showcase its international climate financing efforts, while balancing the pressures of classification controversies. As the dynamics of US-China relations shift, the outlook for global climate diplomacy remains uncertain, with potential risks and opportunities arising for international cooperation.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
