Syrian rebels have successfully executed a surprise offensive to reclaim Aleppo, capitalizing on diminished Russian military support and weakened Iranian influence due to Israeli interventions. The rapid retreat of Assad’s forces highlights significant vulnerabilities in the regime, accompanied by the resurgence of HTS’s influence. This development underscores ongoing instability in the region as geopolitical factors continue to shape the power balance in Syria.
In a notable development in the Syrian civil war, Syrian rebels have successfully launched a surprise offensive, retaking control of Aleppo from government forces in a matter of days. This sudden shift in power dynamics is attributed to two significant factors: the diversion of Russian military resources to the conflict in Ukraine and the strategic weakening of Iran’s influence in the region due to Israel’s military actions against Iranian proxies. The offensive in Aleppo signifies not only a tactical victory for the rebels but also an indication of the frailty of Assad’s regime, which had previously seemed stable.
Historically, Aleppo endured intense conflict from 2012 to 2016, with government forces compelling rebel groups to withdraw. Despite this, the adjoining Idlib region remained a bastion for rebel groups, primarily the jihadist organization Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Post-2020, a ceasefire held, but the recent offensive highlights the vulnerabilities in President Bashar al-Assad’s defenses triggered by the shifting landscape of international support. This has led to a rapid retreat of government forces, reestablishing HTS’s presence in a city that is pivotal to control in Syria.
The decline of Russian military support has been crucial to this transformation. Notably, Russia redirected missile systems and critical military resources to its invasion efforts in Ukraine, thereby diminishing its operational capabilities in Syria. Despite attempts to conduct airstrikes from Khmeimim airbase, the effectiveness of these operations appears limited, as shown by recent attacks that have not significantly impeded the rebel advance.
Moreover, Israel’s extensive military campaign against Iranian-affiliated groups has significantly weakened Hezbollah and related forces within Syria. Observers posit that the reduction in Iran’s capacity to support Assad has altered the power dynamics significantly. According to Middle East expert Burcu Ozcelik, “Iran proxies have been substantially degraded, and this has an unquestionable impact on the Assad regime’s ground forces.” With Iran likely adopting a more cautious stance to avoid provoking Israeli retaliation, the Syrian regime faces a pronounced lack of external military support.
The resurgence of conflict in Aleppo underscores that the issues in the Syrian civil war remain unresolved, with HTS motivated by ideological conflict seeking to exploit military opportunities. The rapid success of the offensive raises questions about internal dynamics within the rebel coalition, while simultaneously signaling a grim outlook for the Assad regime as this campaign is unlikely to dissipate quickly. Overall, the shifting alliances and changing military capabilities create a precarious future in Syria, wherein one counter-insurgency may lead to another full-scale conflict in the broader Middle East.
The ongoing conflict in Syria has been marked by shifting alliances and fluctuating power dynamics since its inception in 2011. Aleppo, once a key battleground, witnessed some of the fiercest fighting during the peak of the civil war between 2012 and 2016. As government forces, aided by Russian interventions, regained control over the city, the Idlib region became a refuge for various rebel groups, particularly Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The power dynamics of the Syrian conflict have been influenced heavily by external factors, including Russia’s military engagements and Iran’s support of Hezbollah. The current offensive in Aleppo is a significant indicator of changing circumstances on the ground, propelled by these external conflicts.
The recent offensive by Syrian rebels to capture Aleppo highlights the precarious state of the Assad regime, influenced by reduced Russian support and the impact of Israeli military actions against Iranian influence. As the balance of power shifts, with established players like Iran reevaluating their military commitments, the conflict illustrates that while some battles may cease, new ones are likely to resurface in the turbulent landscape of the Middle East. The future remains uncertain as the battle for control of Syria continues to unfold.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
