Syria’s rebels have rapidly seized key territories such as Aleppo, capitalizing on weakened support for President Assad from Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia. These allies have been distracted by regional conflicts, notably with Israel and the war in Ukraine. The Syrian regime’s miscalculations regarding troop deployments and public sentiment have contributed to the rebels’ success.
In a significant shift in the Syrian conflict, opposition forces have taken advantage of weakened support for President Bashar al-Assad from key allies such as Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, reclaiming territories they lost in previous years. After months of preparation, these rebel groups launched a surprise offensive that resulted in their swift capture of Aleppo and large areas in western Syria. This unexpected momentum has spotlighted the crumbling might of Assad’s coalition, highlighting vulnerabilities exacerbated by distractions from regional conflicts, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine and tensions with Israel.
The Syrian civil war, which began over a decade ago with protests against Assad’s regime, has evolved into a complex battle involving various foreign powers. Historically, Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia have bolstered Assad’s military capabilities, enabling him to maintain control despite numerous challenges. In recent times, however, Iran’s influence has been diminished due to Israeli airstrikes and internal crises, while Hezbollah has suffered considerable losses in its engagements with Israel. Moreover, Russia’s ongoing commitment to Ukraine has diluted its focus on Syria, leading to a notable decrease in military support for Assad’s forces.
The recent changes in the battlefield dynamics can also be attributed to a strategic reassessment by the rebels, particularly the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has been preparing for this offensive amid geopolitical alterations. Their decision to strike at this moment may have been motivated by the withdrawals of Iranian and Hezbollah fighters—shifts that resulted from their own conflicts with Israel. Additionally, Assad appears to have miscalculated the stability of his front lines, having reduced troop presence while failing to win over the populace after years of strife.
Notably, the pocket of resistance that the rebels managed to establish around Aleppo has exposed the frailty of Assad’s hold on power, particularly in light of his inability to foster economic improvement and regain public support. Analysts point out that the regime’s coercive tactics have further alienated the Syrian population, many of whom are unwilling to fight for a government they perceive as corrupt and ineffectual. Remarkably, the rebels’ offensive has changed the longstanding static front lines, underscoring an urgency for Assad to reassess his strategies in light of diminishing international support and increasing local unrest.
The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, has transformed from initial peaceful protests against President Bashar al-Assad into a multifaceted regional conflict involving various local and international actors. Early on, Assad relied heavily on Iranian forces, Hezbollah, and Russian military aid, particularly through airstrikes and the provision of ground troops. However, years of strained resources and engagements in other conflicts have left these allies increasingly distracted and diminished in capability. This shift has paved the way for a renewed offensive by rebel factions, specifically Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who have been building their military might in anticipation of such an opportunity.
The recent offensive by Syrian rebels illustrates a decisive shift in the balance of power within the conflict, largely facilitated by the weakening of Assad’s traditional support system. With allies embroiled in their own struggles and the regime’s domestic shortcomings, the rebels’ rapid gains signal a potential turning point in the protracted civil war. As the situation continues to develop, it remains to be seen how Assad will respond to these challenges and whether external powers will re-engage in support of his government.
Original Source: www.nytimes.com
