Turkey has emerged as a leading force in Syria following the unexpected rapid collapse of Assad’s government. Authorities are pushing for dialogue while managing relations with HTS and seeking to facilitate the return of refugees. Turkey’s influence is evident in the establishment of governance models and potential military actions against the SDF. A substantial reconstruction effort is anticipated, involving significant financial and logistical support.
The swift fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government surprised many, yet for Ankara, it was an anticipated shift. With minimal resistance from the Syrian military, Turkish officials had expected Assad’s regime to collapse sooner or later, though the rapidity of events took them off guard. Limited operations by aligned Syrian opposition forces were permitted to pressurize Assad; however, the capture of Aleppo marked a significant escalation and established Turkey as a dominant player in the Syrian landscape.
In response, Turkey has called for dialogue between the Syrian government and opposition, emphasizing the preservation of state structures. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the HTS leader, has maintained the Syrian governmental framework, ensuring the safety of various sects. Former National Coalition President Khaled Khoja acknowledges Turkey’s influential role in this operation, recognizing its strategic management of interactions with Russia and the newly established Syrian governance frameworks.
Turkey’s priorities in Syria encompass reconciling various armed opposition factions and aiding in the formation of a representative interim government. Regional expert Can Acun underscores Turkey’s previous efforts to create governance models in northern Syria, advocating that these experiences would benefit a post-Assad transition. He emphasizes that technical support and existing institutional structures are critical to the transitional governance process.
Addressing key issues such as resource control managed by U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) remains paramount for Turkey. Acun warns that Ankara may take military action against SDF positions in Arab-dominant areas due to perceived threats linked to the PKK. Furthermore, the repatriation of over three million Syrian refugees in Turkey hinged on socio-economic recovery and security assurances, with Turkey likely orchestrating long-term reconstruction efforts with support from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and Gulf nations.
Overall, the reconstruction of Syria is expected to be a monumental undertaking, with costs reaching up to $360 billion. The synergy between Turkey’s NGOs, local initiatives, and the newly shifted Syrian Interim Government towards Aleppo signifies the intricate layers of Turkey’s involvement in shaping a reformed and stable Syria moving forward.
Turkey’s territorial ambitions and historical ties to both the opposition and some government factions have placed it at the forefront of the ongoing conflict in Syria. The outcome of the Syrian civil war has critical implications for Turkey, given its proximity to the conflict and lingering concerns over Kurdish groups supported by the United States. The complex interplay of regional power dynamics, along with Turkish domestic policies regarding refugees and border security, further complicates its role as a regional leader.
As Turkey solidifies its influence in Syria post-Assad, it faces multifaceted challenges: fostering the return of refugees, engaging in crucial resource negotiations, and establishing stable governance. Turkey’s strategic maneuvers are vital for both regional security and internal stability, with the anticipated reconstruction of Syrian territories playing a pivotal role in its future engagement strategies. Continued diplomatic efforts and military readiness may define Turkey’s long-term objectives in ensuring a secure southern border and a cooperative transitional government in Syria.
Original Source: www.middleeasteye.net
