A recent report from the UNCCD reveals that over 77% of Earth’s land has become permanently drier since 1990, largely due to climate change, with drylands expanding significantly. The findings predict dire consequences for five billion people by 2100 if current greenhouse gas emissions persist. Human activity is implicated as the primary cause of this shift, necessitating urgent global action to address the crisis.
A significant study by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) indicates that over the past three decades, more than three-quarters of the Earth’s land has become permanently drier. The report states that 77.6% of global land experienced increased aridity between 1990 and 2020. Concurrently, drylands have expanded by approximately 4.3 million square kilometers—an area larger than India. Alarmingly, 40.6% of the world’s terrestrial mass, exclusive of Antarctica, is now categorized as drylands, a rise from 37.5% in the preceding years. The implications of this trend threaten the livelihoods of an estimated five billion individuals by the century’s end, particularly if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates. Experts predict that humid areas may convert to drylands, impacting regions such as the Midwestern United States and southern Australia under high emission scenarios.
The analysis presented in the report, titled “The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and Global Aridity Trends and Future Projections,” was released during COP16 in Saudi Arabia. According to Ibrahim Thiaw, the UNCCD executive secretary, this research elucidates the ongoing crisis of global drying with unprecedented clarity, warning of an existential threat affecting billions globally. He emphasized that while droughts are temporary, the transition to a drier climate is irreversible, fundamentally altering the ecosystems and quality of life in affected areas.
Human-driven climate change has been identified as the central cause of this escalating issue, attributed to greenhouse gas emissions stemming from energy production, industrial activity, and changes in land use. These factors contribute to an overall warming of the planet, exacerbating evaporation rates and altering precipitation patterns. Areas suffering the most severe impacts include almost all of Europe and parts of central Africa, while a small fraction of land, 22.4%, experienced wetter conditions during this timeframe.
Particularly alarming is the increase in aridity faced by countries such as South Sudan and Tanzania, with China recording the largest total area converting to drylands. Experts advocate for immediate action to prevent forced migration as agricultural viability diminishes and water scarcity escalates, warning that inaction could lead to widespread social and political turmoil.
Dr. Barron Orr, Chief Scientist at UNCCD, expressed, “For decades, the world’s scientists have signaled that our growing greenhouse gas emissions are behind global warming. Now, for the first time, a UN scientific body is warning that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world.” He underscored the urgency for adaptation strategies, stressing that they are no longer optional.
Nichole Barger, chair of the UNCCD Science-Policy Interface, concluded by calling for global solidarity and innovation to address the dire challenges of climate change, stating, “…the question is not whether we have the tools to respond – it is whether we have the will to act.”
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) focuses on addressing land degradation and the implications of climate change, particularly in relation to desertification and the aridity crisis. The study highlights the ongoing transformation of land globally due to human activities and climate change, which have caused significant shifts in land aridity. The findings serve as a critical warning regarding the future of global ecosystems, water resources, and human populations, emphasizing the importance of taking immediate actions to mitigate the effects of climate change and prevent further degradation of land.
The significant findings from the UNCCD report indicate that over 77% of the Earth’s land has become permanently drier due to climate change, with millions affected by expanding drylands. Experts emphasize the urgency of addressing greenhouse gas emissions to prevent further loss of habitable land, which poses severe risks for billions of individuals worldwide. Immediate action and innovative solutions are essential to combat the impending crisis, which could irreversibly change life on Earth.
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