The ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria marks a pivotal moment for Turkey, enhancing its regional influence but also posing strategic challenges for President Erdogan. Following Assad’s rejection of collaboration, Turkish-backed forces surged, taking control of significant territories. Erdogan aims to eradicate the Kurdish threat along the border while navigating the complex refugee issue and hedging relations with Russia amidst changing alliances in Syria.
The recent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria signifies not only a potential increase in Turkey’s influence within the region but also presents a considerable challenge for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In the wake of Assad’s removal, Erdogan expressed his willingness to collaborate with the Syrian leader, stating, “We reached out to Assad, saying, ‘Come, let us determine the future of Syria together’. Unfortunately, we did not get a positive response.” This lack of response ultimately sealed Assad’s fate as Turkish-supported rebels advanced on Damascus.
As the political landscape in Syria shifts dramatically, Turkey stands poised to capitalize on the situation, particularly given the strategic border it shares with Syria, which stretches over 900 kilometers. Erdogan’s primary aim is to curb the influence of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) near the border, as he perceives them to be closely linked to the PKK—designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union. In a consequential move following Assad’s fall, Turkish-backed forces seized the town of Manbij from the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Reflecting on the role of Turkey in this conflict, Didier Billion, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs, remarked on Turkey’s extensive involvement, revealing that the Turkish military had troops in Idlib province and had facilitated the coordination of various rebel factions. He emphasized that Turkish intelligence was aware of the offensive that resulted in Assad’s rapid ouster. Though ostensibly supportive of the rebel forces, Turkey was also aware of the independence of groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Erdogan’s overarching strategy includes establishing a security buffer to limit Kurdish control along the border. This initiative could lead to the expansion of Turkish-controlled territories within Syria, allowing Erdogan to push Kurdish groups further south and reclaim territories such as Manbij.
The refugee situation poses another challenge for Erdogan, as approximately three million Syrian refugees reside in Turkey—an issue that became prominent in domestic politics during the recent elections. Although many refugees aspire to return, factors such as safety and stability remain critical deterrents.
As for relations with Russia, which have been delicate, both Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin have sought to navigate the power dynamics in Syria collaboratively. Despite shared interests, there remain uncertainties regarding potential Russian military withdrawals and territorial control including the critical Tartus naval base.
In summary, while Turkey undoubtedly emerges as a significant winner in the immediate aftermath of Assad’s removal, the long-term implications hinge upon the actions of the new Syrian regime and its openness to negotiating with Ankara. The path forward remains unclear, with critical questions surrounding the future of Kurdish rights and regional stability yet to be answered.
In conclusion, Turkey has demonstrated its strategic value and determined stance within the region, highlighting its pivotal role amidst the chaos following Assad’s fall. The dynamics of this conflict suggest a complex interplay of opportunities and challenges ahead.
The article discusses the political repercussions of the recent ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, particularly focusing on Turkey’s strategic positioning and ambitions amidst this upheaval. With Erdogan’s prior offers of cooperation to Assad being rebuffed, the subsequent escalation led to significant territorial gains for Turkish-aligned forces. The article examines the implications of Assad’s removal for regional security, Turkey’s military objectives, and ongoing challenges posed by Syrian refugees.
In the wake of Assad’s fall, Turkey has emerged as a key player in shaping the future of Syria, strategically bolstering its influence while managing complex relations with both the Kurdish groups and Russia. Erdogan’s ambitions for regional dominance and stability are fraught with challenges, particularly regarding the Kurdish issue and the fate of Syrian refugees. As Turkey navigates this volatile landscape, the outcomes will significantly depend on the new Syrian government’s approach and the evolving geopolitical dynamics of the region.
Original Source: www.france24.com
