The UN’s UNEP reports an imminent threat of pandemics by 2030, citing factors like H5N1 avian influenza mutations and emerging zoonotic diseases, compounded by worsening antimicrobial resistance. Outbreaks of mpox, cholera, and vector-borne diseases have surged worldwide in 2024, necessitating stronger international health responses and collaboration.
According to a report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published in July 2024, the world may face a potential pandemic by 2030, orchestrated by a variety of dangerous pathogens currently lurking in the environment. Reports indicate that the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 is perilously close to mutating in a way that enables human-to-human transmission. The year has also seen a resurgence of several zoonotic diseases, including cholera and mpox, which have emerged as significant public health threats worldwide.
In 2024, data from the World Health Organization (WHO) highlighted at least 16 viruses and bacteria responsible for global outbreaks, further aggravating the dire issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This crisis presents a significant global challenge, especially as the world continues to grapple with the residual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP warns that changes in land use and unsustainable agricultural practices, alongside climate change, are facilitating the emergence of zoonotic diseases, which are expected to escalate by 2050.
In Africa, the Clade 1b variant of mpox, first identified in 2023, has caused approximately 50,000 cases and over 1,000 deaths, with the WHO declaring it a public health emergency in August 2024. Meanwhile, in Latin America, the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as dengue has surged, with Brazil reporting the highest number of suspected dengue cases ever recorded, exacerbated by favorable climatic conditions for disease-spreading mosquitoes.
North America is not immune, as the H5N1 influenza has been transmitted from poultry to dairy cows, with reported cases affecting multiple states and resulting in infections among humans. In response to the growing threat of AMR, the UN has endorsed a political declaration aiming to decrease AMR-associated deaths by 10 percent annually by 2030, targeting the alarming 4.95 million deaths currently attributed to bacterial AMR.
The looming threat of emerging infectious diseases is amplified by environmental changes, drawing attention from international health organizations. The compounded effects of deforestation, urbanization, and climate change are significantly increasing the potential for zoonotic disease spillover, leading experts to caution about an impending global health crisis. The persistence of antimicrobial resistance poses additional challenges, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Strikingly, the rapid spread of diseases like mpox and dengue are indicative of both the interconnectedness of global health factors and the necessity for effective international responses.
In summary, the potential for a new pandemic by 2030 looms large, driven by environmental changes and a resurgence of old and new pathogens. The increase in zoonotic diseases and the worsening crisis of antimicrobial resistance underline the urgent need for global health collaboration and preparedness. Initiatives by organizations such as the WHO and the UNEP represent important steps in addressing these challenges; however, effective implementation remains crucial.
Original Source: www.downtoearth.org.in
