Ecuador faces an alarming rise in violence and organized crime, with a 430% increase in homicides over five years. President Noboa has enacted military responses that reduced killings but have failed to dismantle the underlying criminal networks. As elections approach, candidates must address the urgent need for a comprehensive security strategy that combines law enforcement with social resilience programs to reclaim stability in the nation.
Ecuadorians will vote on February 9 to elect a new president and national assembly members, with rising crime overshadowing other pressing issues such as energy shortages and unemployment. Once regarded as a safe haven, Ecuador experienced a 430% increase in homicides over five years, alongside alarming rates of femicides and youth violence. This crisis has destabilized lives, impacted U.S. interests, and prompted Secretary of State Marco Rubio to prioritize Ecuador in discussions on security and illegal fishing threats.
In response to escalating violence, President Daniel Noboa declared an “internal armed conflict,” identified 22 criminal organizations as terrorists, and implemented a state of emergency. His government’s military focus has led to a 16.5% decrease in homicides, reflecting his tough stance on crime. However, critics argue that this approach fails to dismantle the operational structures of criminal organizations, highlighting a need for a more comprehensive security strategy that enhances judicial and police capabilities.
Ecuador’s criminal landscape has fragmented as high-value targeting (HVT) strategies have left mid-level criminal elements unaffected. Numerous groups, including Los Lobos and Los Choneros, have surged in power amid violent turf wars. As criminal factions diversify into extortion, human smuggling, and illegal mining, they exert extortion taxes which impose significant burdens on local businesses and residents, underscoring the pervasive nature of organized crime in everyday life.
Internationally, Ecuador’s criminal groups are now vying for agency, shifting from local collaborators to independent operators in global drug trafficking, notably challenging Mexican cartels. Los Lobos, for instance, has evolved to control cocaine shipments directly to Europe, heightening competition among local groups. This territorial struggle complicates the Mexican DTOs’ dominance and increases the risk of violence as local groups seek contracts with these international bodies.
Moreover, the relationships between organized crime and local politics have become increasingly intertwined. Assassinations of candidates challenging criminal influence have escalated, with criminal groups asserting control over governance structures. The nation’s justice system remains ineffective, marred by corruption and violence against officials who seek to uphold the law.
In the upcoming election, Noboa’s mano-dura policies secure him favorable public support. Conversely, his main challenger, Luisa González, advocates a distinct approach focused more on rehabilitation and community safety than military intervention. As the political landscape shifts, both candidates must address Ecuador’s pressing security needs to secure electoral success.
To effectively combat organized crime, Ecuador must transition from HVT towards dismantling criminal networks at all levels. Strategies should include comprehensive societal resilience programs that tackle socio-economic factors contributing to crime. Enhancing law enforcement’s focus on a spectrum of illegal activities and investing in technology for intelligence gathering and border security can create a collaborative environment to fight crime while preserving human rights and community integrity.
Strengthening Ecuador’s judicial system is crucial to counteract corruption and ensure independence. Coordinated policy-making through a reestablished Ministry of Justice and special investigative units can help dismantle powerful criminal networks. U.S. support, alongside community engagement, can bolster Ecuador’s capacity to fight crime and improve security infrastructure, creating a safer environment for its citizens.
Ecuador is currently facing a severe security crisis characterized by a dramatic rise in crime rates, including homicides and other forms of violence. This increase, coupled with economic challenges such as energy shortages and unemployment, is reshaping the socio-political landscape. The U.S. recognizes this shift as a critical issue that affects both regional stability and national security interests. As the February elections approach, understanding and addressing the complexities of organized crime in Ecuador is paramount to restoring public safety and governance.
Ecuador’s security situation is increasingly precarious, with organized crime infiltrating politics and society. President Noboa’s militarized response has yielded some success, but it fails to address deeper systemic issues that allow criminal networks to thrive. A comprehensive approach that balances enforcement with societal resilience, judicial reform, and community engagement is essential for long-term stability. The upcoming elections will be a crucial test for both candidates as they outline their strategies to tackle this pervasive threat.
Original Source: www.brookings.edu
