On February 6, 2025, the Army University’s Cultural and Area Studies Office hosted a panel discussing Iran’s declining influence and its ‘Axis of Resistance’. The discussion included insights on the dynamics of regional militias, the Iranian populace’s sentiments toward U.S. values, and recent political shifts in the Middle East. Experts stressed understanding these factors is crucial for U.S. strategies in the region.
On February 6, 2025, the Cultural and Area Studies Office at the Army University’s Command and General Staff College held a panel discussion titled “Iran and the Axis of Resistance: Declining Power or Evolving Threat?” Dr. Mahir J. Ibrahimov, the CASO Director, emphasized that this inquiry stems from ongoing challenges for the U.S. and its allies regarding Iran’s influence. The panel featured CGSC faculty members who examined the cultural, economic, and political elements affecting Iran’s capacity in the region.
Mark J. Bosse, Chair of Diplomacy Studies at CGSC, noted a challenging period for Iran and its affiliated ‘Axis of Resistance.’ The situation intensified following Yahya Sinwar’s call for actions that would engage the entire Axis against Israel. Despite expectations, the desired outcome of a widespread activation of the Axis has not materialized, with significant losses noted among Hamas fighters and leadership in both Hamas and Hezbollah.
Leadership changes in Lebanon and Syria indicate a decreased Iranian influence, with new regimes asserting independence from Tehran. The Houthis have also halted previous threats against shipping in the Red Sea, signaling further shifts. Bosse remarked on Iran’s historical resilience, stating, “However, throughout history, Iran has been adept at responding and adapting to internal and external crises to remain in power.”
Bosse explained that Iran’s influence is evident in changing perceptions in the region, particularly regarding its anti-U.S. and anti-Israel messaging that has emerged in previously neutral Omani media. Dr. Tirdad Daei, a Senior Instructional Specialist at CGSC, contributed a personal perspective on the U.S.-Iran relationship’s complexities. He traced diplomatic exchanges beginning from 1833 but highlighted escalating tensions, notably after the 1953 U.S.-backed coup and the Iranian hostage crisis.
Daei observed a persistent admiration among the Iranian populace for U.S. values, contrasting sharply with the regime’s position. He asserted that the division between the Iranian people and their government is crucial in understanding the dynamics of U.S.-Iran relations. “The Iranian people remain steadfast in their admiration for American values and their desire for a brighter future. This distinction is essential as we consider strategies to engage with Iran and support these people in this pursuit,” he concluded.
Gary Hobin, Assistant Professor in the Department of Joint, Interagency, and Multinational Operations, described the ‘Axis of Resistance’ as a collaborative network of militias influenced but not directly controlled by Iran. Each group functions based on its unique interests, leading to varying degrees of cooperation. The collapse of Syrian alignment within this network has particularly altered the dynamics, causing certain Iraqi groups to shift their previously firm stances against U.S. presence.
Recent protests among Iranian opposition groups reveal growing discontent, though they lack centralized leadership. While these protests exhibit effectiveness, their short-term nature persists due to diffuse dissatisfaction. The panel concluded with a lively question-and-answer session, fostering discussions regarding Syria and Türkiye. This event is part of a broader seminar series aimed at addressing operational and strategic concerns for the U.S.
The panel discussion highlighted the complex state of Iran and its Axis of Resistance, characterized by significant challenges and changes in regional dynamics. Key topics included Iran’s shifting influence, the Iranian populace’s views on the U.S., and the evolving relationships among militias in the Axis. The insights provided by experts underscored the importance of understanding these developments in formulating future U.S. engagement strategies.
Original Source: www.army.mil
