Turkmenistan is set to commence natural gas shipments to Turkey via a newly established swap agreement with Iran. This involves Turkmenistan delivering gas to Iran, which will in turn supply Turkey. The initial flow is expected to begin on March 1, 2025, with an agreed volume of 2 billion cubic meters. This arrangement reflects Turkey’s ambitions to become a key energy hub for Europe while showcasing Turkmenistan’s reliance on Iranian cooperation.
The long-awaited shipments of Turkmen natural gas to Turkey may begin shortly, based on recent developments. Since early February, discussions have led to the establishment of a swap agreement between Turkmenistan and Turkey involving Iran. Turkmenistan’s state agency reported that Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov discussed this agreement with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, enabling gas transit from Turkmenistan to Turkey through Iran.
Because there is currently no pipeline linking Turkmenistan directly to Turkey, the arrangement requires Turkmenistan to deliver gas to Iran, which in turn will supply Turkey with an equivalent amount. On February 11, Turkish Minister Alparslan Bayraktar confirmed a contract between BOTAS and Turkmengaz, indicating that gas flow is expected to commence on March 1, 2025, with preliminary estimates of 2 billion cubic meters (bcm).
The agreement has significant implications for establishing Turkey as a key gas hub for Europe, which Turkish officials have pursued for over two years. Although a pipeline construction from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan—facilitating gas transit to Turkey—was proposed during a meeting of leaders, the discussions have not yielded a definitive agreement, resulting in alternative proposals for gas delivery.
Despite the current swap arrangement, Turkey remains focused on developing a pipeline that could potentially enhance Turkmen gas supplies to 15 bcm. In September 2024, Turkish Ambassador Ahmet Demirok announced Turkey’s intentions to purchase 300 bcm of Turkmen gas over the next two decades, highlighting the strategic importance of this partnership for both nations.
For Turkmenistan, this agreement signifies progress but underscores its increasing reliance on Iran for gas export solutions. Post-independence, Turkmenistan historically relied on pipelines leading to Russia, but recent trends reveal a shift towards Iran following the expiration of the gas export agreement with Russia in 2024.
The resurgence of gas flows to Iran is vital, considering that this nation has hosted pipelines since 1997, while the capacity from these conduits is limited due to an earlier pricing dispute that halted Turkmen gas exports to Iran in 2017.
Turkmenistan’s reliance on China, which currently consumes about 35 bcm annually, leaves it with few export avenues. Recent initiatives to supply Azerbaijan and Iraq through swap agreements with Iran indicate Turkmenistan’s adaptation to regional export dynamics amid the stagnation of its economy, largely dependent on gas revenues.
The successful execution of these swap agreements hinges upon the integrity of the aging pipelines and the diplomatic relations between Iran and Turkmenistan. Increased cooperation may pose risks, particularly considering Iran’s financial burdens from foreign obligations and the political instability within its regime.
In conclusion, Turkmenistan’s impending gas shipments to Turkey through Iran bring both opportunities and challenges. As the country navigates its export strategies amidst regional dependencies and political uncertainties, the dynamics of its natural gas industry remain pivotal for its economic resilience.
In summary, Turkmenistan is poised to initiate natural gas shipments to Turkey through a swap agreement involving Iran. This deal signals a vital shift as Turkmenistan seeks to bolster its export capacity while increasingly relying on Iran. Turkey aspires to enhance its role as a gas hub for Europe, yet the success of these arrangements is intertwined with broader geopolitical considerations and the operational viability of existing infrastructure.
Original Source: timesca.com
