The article examines Egypt’s evolving role in the Palestinian issue since the 2013 military coup, noting a decline in influence as Gulf states gain prominence. It highlights Egypt’s strategic relations and the fears surrounding possible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, emphasizing the importance of maintaining Egypt’s national security and regional standing amidst these dynamics.
Since the Camp David Accords in 1978, Egypt has held significant sway over the Palestinian issue, particularly following its withdrawal from direct confrontations with Israel. Historically, Egypt has been the leading Arab voice advocating for the Palestinian cause. However, since the military coup in 2013, Egypt’s influence has waned as economic challenges arose, allowing Gulf nations to increase their influence in the region, offering financial support to Cairo.
As dynamics shifted, Saudi Arabia emerged as a key player within the Palestinian discourse, taking on a prominent role nationally and internationally. Concurrently, the normalization of relations between Israel and several Gulf states under the Abraham Accords has altered the traditional roles of Egypt and Jordan, resulting in these states playing a more significant role in Palestinian affairs through funding and political mediation.
Following President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s coup, Egypt’s foreign policy transformed, prioritizing personal and political interests over national security. This was exemplified by Egypt’s decision to relinquish the strategic Tiran and Sanafir Islands to Saudi Arabia in return for Riyadh’s support, aligning Egypt’s interests closely with those of the Gulf States.
These Gulf nations perceive Islamist movements, particularly Hamas, as threats to their regimes, prompting Egypt to align its policies against them. Despite Hamas’s distancing from the Muslim Brotherhood, Egyptian authorities continue to view Hamas as a rival, especially following the attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which united Egypt and the Gulf states with Israel in a shared aim of neutralizing the group.
Sisi’s strategy has led to heightened control over the Rafah border crossing, further isolating Gaza. Eliminating Hamas has become crucial for Egypt as it seeks to pave the way for a future where the Palestinian Authority might govern Gaza post-conflict. Such a shift could drastically diminish the prospects of an independent Palestinian state.
Amid these concerns, speculation has arisen regarding the potential displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, a topic addressed in the “deal of the century” proposed by former President Donald Trump. While Sisi previously indicated support for this proposal, he has rejected suggestions to forcibly relocate Palestinians into Egypt or Jordan, viewing such actions as threats to national security and the region’s demographic stability.
The potential influx of Palestinian refugees into Sinai poses major risks, including security threats and economic strain on an already vulnerable infrastructure. With Egypt’s pre-existing tension regarding its local populations, such resettlement could irrevocably alter the dynamics of the Sinai region and complicate Egypt’s regional standing.
As Sisi contemplates his political future beyond 2030, he faces challenges in aligning his regime’s goals with the expectations of Gulf supporters. The question persists in Egyptian political discussions: Will Sisi acquiesce to the displacement plan to ensure continued governance? Ultimately, the military’s response to such plans hinges on the alignment of political directives from Egypt’s leadership and the positions of regional partners.
Conclusively, Gaza remains central to Egypt’s national security, regional strategy, and demographic balance. Cairo must navigate these complexities to retain its influence and prevent scenarios that would destabilize the geopolitical landscape in favor of competing actors.
The article discusses Egypt’s diminishing role in the Palestinian issue post-2013 coup, highlighting the rise of Gulf influence and the complex interplay of regional politics. It underscores the concerns surrounding potential Palestinian displacement and the impact on Egypt’s national security and demographic balance. Ultimately, Egypt’s strategy must focus on maintaining its pivotal role in Gaza to safeguard both its interests and the broader Palestinian cause.
Original Source: www.middleeasteye.net
