China did not meet its key climate target in 2024, with slight emissions growth attributed to coal dominance, despite significant renewable energy expansion. The carbon intensity reduction fell short of the target, indicating challenges in achieving its commitments under the Paris Agreement. Analysts predict that achieving meaningful emissions declines before the 2030 peak target will be difficult without structural changes in energy consumption.
Official data reveals that China did not achieve a significant climate target in 2024, as emissions slightly increased while coal remained the primary energy source, despite substantial growth in renewable energy. According to analysts, this indicates that China, the largest emitter globally, is falling short of its commitments outlined in the Paris climate agreement.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a 3.4 percent decline in carbon intensity, which is less than the targeted 3.9 percent. Additionally, China is lagging on its objective of an 18-percent reduction from 2020 to 2025. While emissions increased modestly from the previous year, experts speculate that China may be approaching its peak emissions timeline set for 2030.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, emphasized the challenges China faces in meeting its Paris Agreement targets. He stated, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon intensity must fall by 22 percent in the period 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target.”
Despite being the world’s largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, China is also a leader in renewable energy. The nation plans to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. However, analysts suggest that the structural conditions necessary for significant emissions reduction are not in place before the 2030 target.
According to David Fishman from the Lantau Group, coal consumption is expected to slow, but remain predominant until various renewable energy projects are completed near 2030. Growing demand from the industrial sector is hindering China’s progress toward its climate objectives, as observed by Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst at think tank Ember.
In summary, China’s inability to meet its climate target in 2024 underscores a critical moment in its commitment to global climate initiatives. With emissions rising slightly amid a continued reliance on coal, the path forward involves enhancing renewable energy adoption and reforming energy consumption practices. The upcoming Five-Year Plan and emissions targets submission will be pivotal for China’s climate strategy moving forward.
Original Source: www.news-journal.com
