The M23 rebellion in the DRC has advanced significantly since January 2025, capturing strategic areas with little resistance from Congolese forces. The situation has caused intensified humanitarian crises and increased regional tensions, particularly involving Uganda and Rwanda. Numerous scenarios for the ongoing conflict suggest potential for either annexation by Rwanda, a national rebellion, or prolonged civil war, necessitating urgent diplomatic solutions and a focus on rebuilding governance and stability in the region.
The M23 rebellion in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has gained momentum since January 2025, following the capture of Goma and Bukavu, and it faces little opposition from the Congolese military, particularly after the departure of European mercenaries. Burundian troops have also commenced a withdrawal from South Kivu after M23 seized Kavumu airport and the nearby air force base. The M23 has continued its campaign, advancing towards Uvira and Butembo while Ugandan forces have taken control of Bunia amid growing concerns of potential collaboration between Ugandan troops and M23.
The ongoing humanitarian crisis in the DRC has intensified due to the rising displacements as civilians flee violence, with estimates suggesting thousands of casualties resulting from M23’s assault on Goma. Prior to this escalation, around 500,000 people were already displaced within the Kivus. Escalating tensions have led to outbreaks of violence directed against Rwandan and Ugandan embassies in Kinshasa, where many blame these nations for supporting the M23.
Experts assert that the M23’s rapid advancements could lead to significant shifts in control in the region. There are emerging fears that M23 could replicate past conflicts by attempting to capture power in Kinshasa, supported by claims of renewed military assistance from Rwanda and Uganda. The narrative surrounding M23’s resurgence indicates it has undergone considerable military preparation, considered to be state-sponsored, and has begun to establish control over critical mining resources.
Amidst these developments, the M23 has implemented administrative governance in captured areas and enhanced its military capabilities, absorbing defeated government forces. This new approach also includes forming the Alliance Fleuve Congo, which seeks to unify anti-government movements. The M23’s control over lucrative mining sites has raised alarms, with accusations that they earn substantial revenues from these operations, which could fuel their military ambitions.
Diplomatic efforts from regional bodies such as the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have not yielded effective resolutions to the conflict. Notably, DRC President Felix Tshisekedi’s expulsion of the EAC forces has fueled hostilities, and while ceasefire attempts have been made, without comprehensive agreement, fighting continues. Both regional summits have concluded with little progress, leading to skepticism about effective conflict resolution.
The conflict’s broad scope presents multiple scenarios, including military annexation by Rwanda, a nationwide rebellion, or a prolonged civil war, reflecting tensions dating back to earlier Congo wars. Calls for a renewed national dialogue echo the needs of the Congolese people for a legitimate political framework and governance. Prospective solutions must draw from historic resolutions, focusing on inclusivity and regional stability.
The DRC currently faces a complex and worsening crisis as the M23 rebellion expands unchecked, exacerbating humanitarian suffering and straining regional relationships. The situation is compounded by historical grievances and potential external influence from neighboring countries. Effective solutions will require a collaborative and comprehensive approach emphasizing dialogue, regional cooperation, and addressing underlying issues that have persisted since independence. Without a dedicated effort towards rebuilding state legitimacy and stability, the DRC risks descending into further conflict.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
