La Niña has recently emerged in the Pacific, but early signs indicate it may end soon. Meanwhile, an unexpected warming event known as coastal El Niño is influencing sea temperatures off the coast of South America, raising concerns about weather patterns and hurricane seasons. As these shifts occur, global temperatures may remain elevated, prompting further examination of their impacts.
In January, the arrival of La Niña in the Pacific marked a significant climatic event. However, only two months later, the situation has changed, raising concerns about its potential end and the implications for global temperatures and hurricane activity. La Niña typically cools large portions of the Pacific Ocean but has struggled to curb the excessive global heat experienced in 2024 and continuing into 2025.
A newly emerging trend has been observed with warming ocean waters in the eastern Pacific near South America, causing temperatures to exceed normal levels significantly. Known as a coastal El Niño or El Niño Costero, this phenomenon can have wide-ranging impacts including severe weather events. Historical occurrences in 2017 and 2023 resulted in flooding and health crises in regions such as Peru.
The duration of this warming event remains uncertain, ranging from a few months to a persistent condition, which could have important implications for hurricane seasons and global temperature trends. The National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) has issued an “El Niño Costero Watch,” indicating that if elevated temperatures remain for three months, an official event declaration may follow.
Recent shifts in wind patterns have played a crucial role in this rapid temperature change, disrupting essential ocean processes. Models had not anticipated such swift warming, as predictive capabilities, while improved, are still limited. Ken Takahashi Guevara highlighted that the current warming off Peru is “somewhat independent” of the waning La Niña.
Peru is particularly vulnerable to the effects of this coastal El Niño, with severe weather patterns often impacting the densely populated coastal regions. According to meteorologist Abraham Levy, such events have unique footprints and can result in excessive heat and rainfall, impacting critical sectors like fisheries and agriculture. Warming waters can also pose threats to fish populations as they seek deeper, cooler environments.
Historically, coastal El Niño events have precipitated significant consequences, including flooding and health crises. The 2023 event led to the first cyclone in decades and a dengue fever outbreak. Forecasts indicate a full-fledged El Niño event is improbable, with the chances being around one in five, as per the International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s latest assessments.
While the coastal El Niño evolves, La Niña still exists as a cool patch in the central Pacific. As La Niña dissipates, scientists warn that this could keep global temperatures at elevated levels. Despite La Niña’s emergence earlier this year, it was predicted to be too weak to prevent another record-setting warm year.
As conditions transition toward ENSO-neutral in the coming months, the World Meteorological Organization reported a 60% probability of this shift. Takahashi further suggested that La Niña’s impacts on global weather might persist longer than traditional metrics indicate. The interplay between the warming waters in the eastern Pacific and the cooling effects of La Niña may shape the intensity of the upcoming hurricane season.
The swift transition from La Niña to potential warming events in the eastern Pacific signals significant climatic changes. Coastal El Niño phenomena are likely to impact global temperature trends and hurricane activity, with historical data underscoring the substantial repercussions for vulnerable regions. As La Niña fades, the temperature dynamics in the Pacific raise the risk of another record-breaking warm year. It is critical to monitor these developments for their far-reaching implications.
Original Source: www.washingtonpost.com
