General Abebe Teklehaymanot (Jobe) predicts a high likelihood of war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, following a rapid deteriorating relationship. He outlines two potential motivations for conflict—control over the port of Assab and regime change in Eritrea. Jobe also alerts to possible interventions by external powers, while reflecting on past failures to address threats from Eritrea’s military buildup.
Recent discussions among politicians and military figures emphasize a growing expectation for conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, particularly following the collapse of their previously amicable relations. The troubling trajectory of this relationship has unfolded in less than three years, with the fundamental causes remaining ambiguous to the public.
General Abebe Teklehaymanot, known as Jobe, a former commander of the Ethiopian Defense Force, indicated the high likelihood of war in an interview with a Tigrigna-language outlet. He stated, “The two countries are likely heading to war,” citing military mobilizations and mutual accusations as evidence of this growing tension.
Jobe elaborated on the unpredictable outcomes of a potential war, emphasizing the importance of understanding its objectives. He identified two possible motivations for escalating conflict: the desire to control Assab, an important port near Ethiopia’s borders, and the ambition to dismantle the ruling party in Eritrea, also known as the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ). Many politically active Eritreans believe there was prior U.S. support for such a regime-change agenda, although this support has diminished under the Trump administration.
Furthermore, Jobe posited that various regional powers might involve themselves for strategic reasons, mentioning Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States as potential interveners. He reflected on historical missed opportunities, expressing regret for the failure to address the threat posed by the PFDJ during the earlier Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict from 1998 to 2000.
During that period, internal disagreements within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)-led government influenced policy outcomes regarding Eritrea. Jobe criticized the choice to allow Eritrea to rebuild its military infrastructure following the 2000 peace settlement.
The aftermath saw a prolonged phase of tension labeled as “no peace, no war,” only for relations to deteriorate again after Abiy Ahmed’s 2018 normalization efforts. Should conflict rekindle between Eritrea and Ethiopia, Jobe, currently based in the U.S., predicts that Tigray will become the primary battleground.
In conclusion, the prospect of renewed conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia seems increasingly probable, as indicated by General Jobe and recent military activities. The motivations driving such conflict include control over strategic locations and a regime change agenda. Additionally, potential interventions by external powers could complicate the situation further. Historical grievances and miscalculations evidently continue to shape the present dynamics of the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: borkena.com
