General Abebe Teklehaymanot, known as Jobe, warns of possible war between Eritrea and Ethiopia due to collapsing relations and military mobilizations. He identifies motivations for conflict including control over the Assab port and regime change. Potential interventions from regional powers such as Egypt and the U.S. are also discussed, alongside reflections on past opportunities missed during the Eritrean-Ethiopian War.
Recent discussions among military and political figures indicate a high likelihood of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, primarily due to the fraying relationship between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The accelerated deterioration of their rapport within a short span of less than three years has left many puzzled about the existing underlying tensions.
General Abebe Teklehaymanot, also known as Jobe from his days as a TPLF guerilla, has notably contributed to this discourse. In a recent interview with a Tigrigna-language media outlet, he asserted that the countries are on a path toward war and cited several indicators, including recent military mobilizations and mutual accusations.
Jobe stated that predicting the outcome of potential hostilities remains uncertain and emphasized the importance of understanding the motivations behind a possible conflict. He outlined two potential objectives: seizing control of the Assab port, situated near the Ethiopian border, and the aim to dismantle the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), seeking regime change in Eritrea.
He further mentioned the possibility of various regional powers intervening for their strategic interests, highlighting Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States as potential actors. Reflecting on historical events, Jobe expressed regret over not neutralizing the PFDJ during the 1998–2000 Eritrean-Ethiopian War, citing internal divisions within the TPLF-led government as detrimental to unity.
Jobe criticized the 2000 peace agreement that allowed Eritrea to rebuild its military capabilities, resulting in a prolonged state of ‘no peace, no war’ until 2018, when relations were briefly normalized by Abiy Ahmed. However, those diplomatic efforts quickly deteriorated, placing both countries back into a hostile stance. He cautioned that, should conflict arise, Tigray may serve as the primary battleground.
In summary, the prospects for conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia are increasingly perceived as likely due to deteriorating diplomatic relations and military mobilizations. General Jobe’s insights underscore the multifaceted motivations for war, including historical grievances and strategic interests of third-party nations. The evolving political landscape raises concerns about regional stability and the potential for wider conflict in Tigray.
Original Source: borkena.com
