Saudi Arabia seeks to establish a ‘hidden guardianship’ over Lebanon following the recent ceasefire with Israel. This shift involves a recalibrated diplomatic strategy, focusing on curbing Hezbollah’s influence through conditional support. President Joseph Aoun aims to restore relations with Saudi Arabia amid external pressures for political reform and normalization with Israel, which may destabilize Lebanon further.
Recently, Saudi Arabia has sought to impose what is now referred to as a “hidden guardianship” over Lebanon, especially in light of the recent ceasefire with Israel. The ceasefire, negotiated in November after weeks of intense conflict, has provided opportunity for the United States and its allies to influence Lebanon’s political landscape, particularly through Saudi Arabia, which has a history of involvement in the region.
Following the ceasefire, Saudi Arabia promptly shifted its approach by transferring oversight of Lebanon’s affairs from the Royal Court to the Foreign Ministry. This change indicates a more hands-on diplomatic strategy aimed at fostering relationships with Lebanon’s political and religious factions, particularly concerning the presidential election and government formation strategies.
Saudi Arabia’s renewed involvement comes after a previous disengagement in 2017, aimed at distancing itself from Lebanese politics after Saad Hariri’s controversial resignation. Joseph Aoun, the current President, is now committed to mending relations with Riyadh, which he views as essential for Lebanon’s recovery, highlighted by his recent visit to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
However, this renewed Saudi engagement is contingent upon strict demands from Riyadh. The kingdom is no longer providing unconditional support but now requires Lebanon to take decisive actions against Hezbollah’s influence, specifically through enforcing international resolutions and ensuring state authority over territories.
Currently, Lebanon is under scrutiny to demonstrate alignment with the Saudi–American agenda, particularly regarding Hezbollah’s disarmament and resource limitations. This involves rigorous financial controls aimed at preventing funds from benefiting areas linked to the resistance movement in Lebanon, complicating the reconstruction efforts in regions most impacted by the conflict.
In observing the relationship between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, journalist Maysam Rizk indicated that the kingdom sees Lebanon as “on probation,” monitoring governmental actions pertaining to resistance movements. The goal for Saudi Arabia and the US is to curtail Hezbollah’s influence throughout Lebanon under the guise of reforms, aiming for a broader regional strategy.
With the shifting political dynamics, Saudi Arabia is aggressively working to secure its influence in Lebanon at the expense of competitors like Qatar. By deploying economic leverage conditionally, Riyadh seeks to reconstruct Lebanon’s political structure and ensure compliance with its broader geopolitical agenda.
Dr. Fouad Ibrahim asserts that Saudi Arabia intends to exploit the outcomes of the recent conflict in Israel as a perceived victory over resistance, suggesting a fragile internal unity in Lebanon could be reshaped for Riyadh’s advantage during these regional shifts.
Concerns are rising regarding whether Saudi Arabia’s strategy also encompasses pressuring Lebanon towards normalization with Israel. Analysts note that such normalization is a gradual goal, aspiring for consolidation of political, security, and financial institutions in a manner conducive to the Saudi-American partnership.
Lebanon’s Sunni community is a primary target for this shift, with intentions to redefine regional narratives and align Lebanon politically with Gulf states against Iran and Hezbollah. Observers have noted that recent governmental actions reflect this external pressure, indicating compliance with broader normalization expectations.
President Joseph Aoun plans a second visit to Saudi Arabia, hoping to achieve diplomatic engagements that have stalled. However, promises from Saudi Arabia regarding economic assistance remain uncertain as they evaluate Lebanon’s adherence to their specific conditions.
The political and economic transitions Lebanon faces are undeniably intertwined with regional power dynamics. Despite efforts to create a favorable outlook, the ongoing pressures linked to normalization with Israel and the demands set forth by Saudi Arabia highlight the precarious nature of Lebanon’s current situation. Failure to comply with these expectations could lead to renewed instability and civil unrest in the future.
In conclusion, Saudi Arabia is actively working to reshape its influence in Lebanon following the recent ceasefire with Israel, imposing stringent conditions for support that emphasize curtailing Hezbollah’s power. This strategy intertwines Lebanon’s internal politics with broader regional maneuvers aimed at aligning the country with Saudi and American interests. As Lebanon grapples with its choices, the implications of compliance versus resistance highlight significant risks and potential crises ahead.
Original Source: thecradle.co
