This article analyzes the precarious situation of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, suggesting his potential military action against Eritrea may be driven by internal crises and a desire to distract from domestic issues. It highlights economic collapse, political fragmentation, ethnic tensions, and reliance on drone warfare as critical factors exacerbating the situation, cautioning about the risks of regional instability.
Recently, there has been an increase in discussions and concerns regarding the potential for an Ethiopian invasion of Eritrea, particularly focused on the port of Assab. State media under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has fueled this speculation, with military leaders suggesting that the Ethiopian military requires a naval base with ocean access, prompting fears from analysts and commentators across Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
While some experts dismiss the likelihood of this conflict due to Abiy’s internal challenges, a detailed examination reveals greater peril. Leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) perceive an escalating possibility of internal war among TPLF factions, indicating Abiy’s intention to absorb many Tigrayan forces into his military, a move supported by military chief, Birhanu Jula, and former TPLF leader, Samora Yunis. The present crises confronting Abiy’s regime—political, economic, and social—suggest a looming collapse, rendering a conflict with Eritrea a desperate bid for survival rather than a strategic initiative.
Abiy’s potential conflict with Eritrea seems less about achieving military success and more about generating chaos to prolong his political tenure, shifting focus away from internal strife. The economic situation in Ethiopia is particularly dire, characterized by:
1. Economic Collapse: Ethiopia faces severe inflation, foreign currency shortages, and depletion of IMF funds. The suspension of U.S. aid has intensified food and health crises, crippling the economy.
2. Political Fragmentation and Insurgency: Unresolved conflict with the TPLF, coupled with increased power from the Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), has rendered many areas ungovernable, hindering Abiy’s governance except in Addis Ababa.
3. Ethnic Tensions: Since 2018, escalating ethnic violence has resulted in hundreds of thousands of fatalities and nearly 10 million displacements, affecting multiple regions in the country.
4. Drone Warfare: Abiy’s reliance on drone technology, sourced from various countries, has drawn significant concern. Reports of both targeted and indiscriminate attacks against civilians raise alarm regarding government actions under his leadership.
Amid this backdrop, Abiy may see an Eritrean conflict as an expedient distraction, believing Eritrea’s defensive posture will shield him from repercussions while shifting international blame for his administration’s failures. Nevertheless, this approach is dangerously shortsighted and may significantly impact regional stability.
The international community must remain alert to Abiy’s maneuvers, recognizing the potential for conflict as a desperate strategy for personal survival rather than national interest. Urgent action is needed to prevent escalation and promote peace, protecting millions at risk in this volatile context. This analysis is based on current observations and may evolve as the situation progresses.
In conclusion, the article underscores the precarious situation of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as he faces multiple internal crises. Rather than pursuing a strategic conflict with Eritrea, evidence suggests that such a move may be a desperate attempt to distract from domestic turmoil. The potential repercussions for stability in the region are profound, warranting close scrutiny and proactive measures from the international community to avert further escalation and safeguard peace.
Original Source: borkena.com
