South Sudan’s transitional government faces urgent pressure to uphold the 2018 peace deal as elections near. The Tumaini Peace Initiative discussions will resume amid rising tensions and violence. Both regional and international organizations have amplified their diplomatic efforts to mitigate conflict and support the peace process. Analysts warn of the increasing risk of a return to full-blown war if unresolved issues persist.
The transitional government of South Sudan is currently facing considerable pressure to reaffirm its commitment to the 2018 peace agreement as elections approach in 2026. Both regional and international stakeholders are urging President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar to prevent further destabilization. Notably, the Tumaini Peace Initiative is set to resume in Nairobi later this month following multiple postponements, amidst escalating violence in Upper Nile State and rising political tensions in Juba.
The civil conflict in South Sudan, which began in 2013, has resulted in over 400,000 fatalities. Recent weeks have seen ongoing clashes in the northeastern Upper Nile region, where government forces are facing off against the White Army militia, alleged to have connections with Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO). A tragic incident involving a United Nations helicopter resulted in the loss of a crew member’s life and injuries to two others during an evacuation mission of national army members.
In light of the violence, President Salva Kiir stated, “The government which I lead will handle this crisis. We will remain steadfast in the path of peace.” Analysts express concerns about the viability of the peace deal’s security provisions due to ongoing military integration issues. In Juba, tensions persist following the recent arrests and subsequent releases of several high-ranking Machar allies, which have been criticized by Machar’s camp as violations of the peace agreement.
Daniel Akech Thiong, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that “the fragile peace that has maintained a delicate balance among competing armed leaders since 2018 is at risk of collapsing.” The Tumaini Peace Initiative, aimed at integrating opposition groups into the transitional framework, faces significant challenges due to delays and disagreements, particularly highlighted by a recent postponement in February.
Alan Boswell, director at the International Crisis Group, warned, “South Sudan is slipping rapidly toward full-blown war,” if urgent measures are not taken. The upcoming session in March must address unresolved issues such as security sector reforms and political representation, as emphasized by South Sudan’s Cabinet Affairs Minister, Martin Elia Lomurö.
The African Union and Intergovernmental Authority on Development are intensifying diplomatic efforts to avert further deterioration of the situation. Yasmin Sooka, chairperson of the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, highlighted the critical need for leaders to prioritize the peace process to avoid regression, stating, “We are witnessing an alarming regression that could erase years of hard-won progress.”
In conclusion, the fragile peace in South Sudan is under significant threat as the nation approaches critical talks and elections. The Tumaini Peace Initiative must address pressing issues to avoid renewed conflict. Both domestic and international pressures mount on leaders Kiir and Machar to commit to the peace agreement and work towards stability. A proactive approach is essential to prevent a return to full-scale war and ensure a peaceful transition to democracy.
Original Source: africa.cgtn.com
