The article discusses the historical context and current developments in Syria following the Assad regime’s fall. It highlights the rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and their control over territories, the implications for Iranian and Turkish influence in the region, and the challenges faced by the new government in establishing stability. Additionally, the article explores the uncertain U.S. policy direction and its potential impacts in the region.
In 1965, British journalist Patrick Seale published “The Struggle for Syria,” highlighting the geopolitical strife surrounding Syria as various regional and international actors compete for influence. Following a series of coups in 1949, Syria briefly merged with Egypt before regaining independence in 1961. Hafez al-Assad established a powerful state in 1971, offering his citizens stability in exchange for authoritarian rule, creating a regime dominated by the Alawite minority.
After Hafez al-Assad’s death in 2000, his son Bashar al-Assad took over; however, he struggled during the Arab Spring, which escalated into a severe civil war. The conflict drew in international actors, with Russia and Iran intervening militarily in 2015 to support Assad. The war formally ended in December 2016, but the country remained divided, with Assad controlling only 60 percent of Syria, while the remaining territories were held by various groups, including Turkey and Kurdish forces.
Despite regaining some control, Assad and his allies faced continued unrest in Idlib province, where Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) governed. A surprise offensive by HTS in late 2024 ultimately led to the regime’s downfall, with Aleppo and Damascus falling under HTS control, transitioning the reins of power from Assad to al-Joulani, who now heads a new regime.
This power shift significantly alters the political landscape in Syria. The fall of the Assad dynasty not only ended Alawite dominance but also raised questions about the new regime’s governance and its future orientation. Although al-Joulani distanced himself from Al-Qaeda, he faces skepticism from the international community while lacking a clear political roadmap for Syria.
The new regime must address various domestic challenges, such as integrating the Kurdish and Alawite communities into a cohesive state. Regionally, the shift poses challenges to Iran’s influence while presenting opportunities for Turkey. Turkey has established relations with HTS, potentially positioning itself as the regime’s primary supporter in opposition to Iranian interests.
Other regional players, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are keen on fostering ties with Syria’s new government, hoping to integrate it within a pro-Western framework. Israel, while concerned about radical elements in Syria, has thus far maintained an indirect approach, with al-Joulani avoiding confrontation regarding Israel’s military actions.
Amidst these developments, the U.S. must navigate its policy in Syria carefully; the Biden Administration has engaged with the new regime, while the Trump Administration grapples with its direction. The U.S. has historically supported Kurdish forces in Syria, vital for combating the Islamic State. However, a lack of commitment to U.S. involvement could hinder any progress toward stabilizing the new Syrian regime and its alignment with broader Middle Eastern goals.
In conclusion, the evolving landscape of Syria post-Assad poses numerous challenges and opportunities, both domestically and internationally. The HTS’s emergence and the potential for Turkish influence mark significant shifts in the region. The United States’ approach will play a crucial role in determining the trajectory of Syria’s new regime and regional geopolitics.
Original Source: www.hoover.org
