Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae warns that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea appears inevitable as preparations are nearing completion. He emphasizes the broader risks involved and urges diplomatic intervention to prevent conflict while highlighting concerning internal divisions within Tigray and the implications of external influences.
In a recent commentary, Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae expressed grave concerns about the escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, suggesting that war appears imminent. He stated that preparations for conflict are nearing their final stages, which could make Tigray the central battleground. Tsadkan emphasized the urgent need for diplomatic efforts to prevent war, underscoring, “At any moment, war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out,” highlighting the broader implications for regional stability, including potential ramifications for Sudan and the Red Sea area.
Tsadkan deteriorating relations between Addis Abeba and Asmara following the Pretoria peace agreement contribute to the increasing likelihood of conflict. He noted that Eritrea’s ambition to dominate its neighbors has led to aggressive posturing against Ethiopia. He described Tigray as viewed by Eritrea as “the main obstacle” and indicated a willingness on Asmara’s part to engage militarily in the hope of achieving its objectives, particularly referencing Isaias Afwerki’s assertions of frustration post-agreement.
Furthermore, Tsadkan highlighted internal divisions within Tigray, stating that some factions of the fragmented TPLF might be inclined to align with Eritrea for personal gains, indicating a potential betrayal of Tigray’s interests. He stated, “The taste for power with total impunity has not left this group,” signaling concerns about loyalty and motivations within Tigrayan leadership amidst the crisis.
Former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome echoed these concerns, asserting that Isaias Afwerki’s strategies could destabilize the situation further. He warned that Eritrea’s alleged manipulation of divisions in the TPLF might reignite conflict in northern Ethiopia, jeopardizing the fragile peace established by the Pretoria agreement. Eritrea, on the other hand, dismissed these accusations, characterizing them as pretexts to justify aggression against the nation and attributing the region’s issues largely to Ethiopia’s internal struggles.
Tsadkan projected that renewed conflict could inevitably result in serious geopolitical shifts in the Horn of Africa, stating, “when the war ends, the geography of the states as we now recognize them will not be the same.” He cautioned that international focus on global issues might leave the region vulnerable to upheaval, underscoring the need for immediate intervention from both the Ethiopian government and international partners to maintain peace. He advocates for a commitment to implementing the Pretoria agreement to avert war, stating that should prevention fail, the fastest pathway to resolution is paramount for Tigray and the region.
In summation, the warning from Lt. Gen. Tsadkan reflects a critical juncture in Ethiopian-Eritrean relations, underscoring the urgency for diplomatic interventions to avert imminent conflict. He highlights the perilous nature of the current situation, especially with factions within Tigray and the deteriorating situation since the Pretoria agreement. The potential for severe geopolitical impacts necessitates immediate action to promote peace and stability in the region.
Original Source: addisstandard.com
