The Horn of Africa is on the brink of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, primarily in Tigray. Key risks stem from propaganda, unresolved issues following the COHA, and heightened military posturing. Urgent diplomatic intervention from global powers is crucial to prevent further crisis and ensure regional stability.
The Horn of Africa faces a dire threat of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly affecting the war-torn Tigray region. The recent peace achieved through the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) has become precarious due to propaganda portraying the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as an ally of Eritrea. The international community, particularly the U.S. and European Union, must intervene to stem escalating tensions and prevent further crisis.
The COHA, which was signed on November 3, 2022, marked a significant milestone after two devastating years of conflict that resulted in extensive loss of life and displacement. Nonetheless, current actions by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration indicate a troubling shift away from the peace agreement, notably the refusal to recognize TPLF as a political entity and failure to address territorial disputes.
Amidst growing military intentions, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and the Fano militia call for the dismantling of the TPLF instead of fostering an enduring peace. Abiy’s remarks regarding access to the sea signal potential hostility, causing fears of direct confrontation as both nations secure alliances, complicating regional dynamics.
The December 2024 Ankara Accord eliminated Ethiopia’s aspirations for a Somaliland port, spurring inflammatory nationalist discourse within Ethiopian media regarding territorial claims. Relations worsened following a significant youth-led opposition conference opposing Eritrea’s regime, prompting both nations to mobilize military forces along the border.
Incendiary rhetoric from Ethiopian officials and state-owned media has heightened anxieties of a broader war, with claims of the TPLF collaborating with Eritrea surfacing without concrete proof. This narrative, seemingly intended to induce military action, has compounded distrust and could undermine any peace initiatives.
Recent statements from the Ethiopian government reflect its continued awareness of Eritrean troops present in Ethiopia, a stark acknowledgment intended to justify potential military aggression against Eritrea. Amid significant federal pressures, the TPLF’s ability to participate politically is being severely limited, contributing to frustrations and the collapse of trust in peaceful negotiations.
The Ethiopian government’s sustained use of political tactics appears reminiscent of pre-war maneuvers seen before the 2020 Tigray conflict. Not only does the situation signify a precarious return to hostility that degrades Ethiopia’s stability, but it also threatens regional security and invites broader international involvement.
Diplomatic engagement remains vital to avert the impending crisis. Failure to act could precipitate extensive instability impacting a wider region, with extremist groups potentially exploiting the chaos. As such, international powers are urged to exert immediate diplomatic efforts on all involved entities to foster de-escalation and prevent a return to conflict in Tigray.
This analysis underscores the urgency of diplomatic intervention to prevent the resurgence of conflict in the Horn of Africa. The revival of hostilities would not only endanger Ethiopia and Eritrea but could destabilize the entire region, inviting the influence of extremist groups. It is imperative for global powers to prioritize peaceful resolutions and mitigate tensions, upholding the fragile gains made towards peace.
Original Source: www.ethiopia-insight.com
