Brazil’s sugarcane crop is again threatened by dry weather, with forecasts showing mixed predictions for the 2025/26 harvest. Datagro estimates production could decline by 1.4%, while others project even steeper drops. The drought affects growth and sprouting, with some regions anticipating significant losses. The outcome will depend heavily on April rainfall.
Dry weather is threatening another significant decline in Brazil’s sugarcane crop for the upcoming 2025/26 harvest, set to commence in April. Producers are increasingly worried as drought conditions worsened due to insufficient rainfall in February and early March, compounding the issues created by last year’s drought and wildfires. Forecasts regarding sugarcane production vary, with some analysts predicting a recovery while others foresee continued declines due to unfavorable conditions affecting crop yields.
Datagro, a consultancy firm, has projected sugarcane production at 612 million tonnes for the upcoming season, representing a 1.4% decrease from the current harvest. Conversely, Hedgepoint is exhibiting optimism, forecasting production could reach 630 million tonnes, attributing this to improved rainfall and soil moisture. However, concerns linger as Carlos Mello from Hedgepoint indicated that dryer conditions from March to May could lead to lower output.
On a more pessimistic note, Sucden’s Ulysses Carvalho estimates production could fall between 590 million and 600 million tonnes. Producers are significantly more cautious, with José Guilherme Nogueira from Orplana forecasting a minimum 15% drop based on discussions with industry stakeholders. Challenges cited include poor sprouting and sluggish growth of sugarcane plants, regardless of fire impact areas.
Azael Pizzolato Júnior, a sugarcane supplier, has reported incidents of ratoon crops failing to regenerate, necessitating replanting efforts. The drought is also affecting peanut crops grown in rotation with sugarcane. Regions such as Jaú are particularly struggling with scarce rainfall and lower than expected plant heights. Eduardo Romão of the Jaú Sugarcane Growers Association confirmed an anticipated 25% drop in productivity for his area, with other regions potentially faring worse due to ongoing drought effects.
While some areas like Piracicaba remain less affected, the overall situation appears dire, as highlighted by the rainfall deficits reported in February. Datagro’s analysis indicates that several microregions are facing serious shortfalls, with Ribeirão Preto’s rainfall 26.5% below average and Bauru at 43.1% below. The assessment revealed high soil water storage levels exceeding 70% in many areas; however, they were significantly higher last year.
Looking ahead, Datagro predicts a decline in productivity for the initial harvest period owing to poor plant sprouting and other factors, while stability is expected through the subsequent stages. “Everything will depend on April’s rainfall,” stated Plínio Nastari, underscoring the critical nature of upcoming weather conditions for crop yields.
In summary, Brazil’s sugarcane crop faces serious challenges owing to persistent dry conditions that threaten to decrease yields once again. While some forecasts suggest potential recovery due to recent rainfall, the prevailing pessimism among producers indicates a cautious outlook for the 2025/26 harvest. With critical weather conditions looming, the agricultural community remains deeply invested in monitoring rainfall patterns as they will heavily influence the outcome of sugarcane production.
Original Source: valorinternational.globo.com
