A potential conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea looms as military forces mobilize following the deterioration of the Pretoria Agreement. Tensions within Tigray and regional rivalries highlight the urgent need for intervention from Gulf states and Western allies to prevent a broader war that could destabilize the entire Red Sea region.
As military forces mobilize, it is imperative for Gulf states, along with their Western allies, to intervene and avert a looming conflict that threatens to escalate throughout the Red Sea region. The cessation of hostilities agreement, signed in late 2022 between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan opposition, marked the end of one of the most devastating wars in the 21st century, with estimates of fatalities reaching over 600,000.
The Pretoria Agreement, which established an interim administration in Tigray, faces significant challenges as it nears its two-year mark in mid-March. The political struggle continues within Tigray, where factions led by TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael and interim president Getachew Reda vie for control. Such divisions have infiltrated the Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF), leading to suspicions and active conflict among its members.
The delicate state of Tigray, set against the backdrop of regional and international tensions, risks igniting a wider conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. This situation mirrors ongoing instability in neighboring Sudan, which could worsen amid renewed unrest. Regional rivalries between Gulf nations, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, further complicate the dynamics, with Ethiopia’s military presence along the Red Sea raising alarms.
Historically, the relationship between the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front and the TPLF has soured since their collaborative efforts against the Derg regime in the 1990s. Following Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018, relations became strained, culminating in escalating disputes over territorial rights and military trust.
The escalating military mobilization on all fronts—Ethiopian federal army, Eritrean Defense Forces, and TDF—indicates that conflict is on the horizon. High-ranking military officials, including Tsadkhan Gebretensae of Tigray’s interim administration, have issued warnings regarding imminent warfare in the region.
As tension intensifies, diplomatic endeavors must be prioritized to avert a slide into chaos and warfare. A coalition of Western and Middle Eastern nations, in collaboration with the African Union, could potentially halt escalating hostilities by promoting meaningful dialogue among local, regional, and international stakeholders.
Failure to act decisively could sanction a dangerous precedent of territorial expansionism, exacerbating existing crises across Northeast Africa and spiraling the entire Red Sea region into further instability. The ramifications of a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could extend far beyond their borders, impacting Sudan, Chad, and the overall security of the region.
In summary, the current political and military tensions in the Horn of Africa necessitate urgent intervention to prevent a resurgence of warfare between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The Pretoria Agreement is at a critical juncture, with competing factions within Tigray posing significant risks. The involvement of Gulf states and Western allies in peaceful negotiations could play a pivotal role in de-escalating the situation, thereby averting a regional conflict that could destabilize Northeast Africa and the Red Sea. Immediate diplomatic efforts are essential to promote stability and prevent the emergence of a broader humanitarian crisis.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
