The quadrilateral meeting in Naqoura marks a new chapter in Israel-Lebanon relations post-political changes in Lebanon. Key issues include IDF withdrawal, prisoner exchanges, and border demarcation, with potential gains for Lebanese leadership against Hezbollah. Israel must navigate these discussions carefully, balancing security with the realities of the Lebanese army’s capabilities.
Recent developments indicate a renewed spirit in the relations between Israel and Lebanon, highlighted by a quadrilateral meeting in Naqoura involving representatives from both nations, along with delegations from the United States and France. This change follows Lebanon’s political shift under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s new government.
The meeting concluded with the establishment of three joint working groups tasked with addressing significant issues: 1) the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from specific areas along the border, 2) the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel, and 3) negotiation of disputed points related to the Blue Line border demarcation established in 2000.
In a gesture of goodwill toward President Aoun, Israel committed to releasing five out of eleven Lebanese detainees. These discussions are crucial as they align with Hezbollah’s claimed justification for its military militia status, relating to the defense of Lebanon against perceived Israeli threats.
Since the ceasefire, Hezbollah has concentrated on regaining military strength, cautiously permitting the Lebanese state to pursue diplomatic goals while subtly threatening a return to military action if their needs are unmet. Both Israel and Lebanon’s new leadership recognize the importance of maintaining the ceasefire and curtailing Hezbollah’s influence within Lebanon’s political landscape.
The Lebanese leadership can gain from obtaining Israeli concessions to bolster their internal stance against Hezbollah. However, Israel must be cautious of the Lebanese state’s current limitations, particularly its fragility in managing Hezbollah’s military presence and avoiding conflict.
Given ongoing complexities, Israel should prioritize discussions within the working groups on territorial matters. The strategy should differentiate between the immediate withdrawal of IDF positions taken during the war and the intricate issue of permanent border demarcation. As part of these discussions, Israel should:
1. Condition the IDF’s withdrawal on the Lebanese army’s effective deployment throughout the region and its commitment to eliminating military presences.
2. Ensure the IDF maintains its operational readiness against threats from Hezbollah.
3. Demand that the permanent border demarcation be incorporated into a comprehensive agreement, necessitating Hezbollah’s disarmament and formalizing Israel-Lebanon relations.
The recent meeting and subsequent agreements signify a potential breakthrough in Israel-Lebanon relations, driven by Lebanon’s new political landscape. By establishing working groups to address security and territorial issues, both nations could collaboratively mitigate Hezbollah’s influence. However, Israel’s demands must consider the existing limitations of the Lebanese state and the complexities surrounding military withdrawal and border demarcation.
Original Source: aurora-israel.co.il
