In February 2025, severe flooding in southern Botswana and eastern South Africa resulted in at least 31 deaths and displaced over 5,000 people. Scientists studied the role of climate change and urbanization in intensifying the heavy rainfall, finding that inadequate drainage infrastructure contributed significantly to the flooding impacts. Ongoing efforts aim to improve resilience through better planning and infrastructure upgrades.
In mid-February 2025, southern Botswana and eastern South Africa experienced severe flooding due to heavy rainfall. This catastrophic event resulted in the loss of at least 31 lives, with 22 fatalities reported in KwaZulu-Natal, while nine individuals, including six children, perished in Gaborone, Botswana. Additionally, over 5,000 people were displaced as the floods caused significant disruption, leading to the closure of major ports, schools, and widespread traffic chaos across the region.
A collaborative study involving scientists from several countries, including Botswana, Denmark, and the United States, aimed to assess the influence of human-induced climate change on the intensity and likelihood of this rainfall event. The researchers focused on the maximum rainfall gathered over a five-day period from February 16-20 to determine the impacts of these extreme weather conditions.
The findings revealed that Gaborone and similar urban areas often face significant flooding challenges due to high-intensity rainfall overwhelming outdated drainage systems. Rapid urbanization and an increasing population density have exacerbated vulnerability, particularly in low-lying regions, which are highly susceptible to severe flooding.
Analysis of the climate data indicates that the heavy rainfall event observed in February 2025 is rare, projected to occur only once every 10-200 years under current climate conditions, which have warmed by 1.3 °C. The return period for this specific event in Gaborone is estimated at 40 years. Evidence shows that such intense rainfall events were much less likely in a colder climate, with a potential intensity increase of about 60% attributable to current warming trends.
Further examination of climate models produced mixed results regarding future rainfall events, highlighting discrepancies in forecasts. While some models predict an increase in extreme rainfall events correlating with climate change, others indicate no significant change or even reductions. This variability may stem from climate change forcing in models being on par with natural variability, complicating the assessment of climate change’s precise influence.
Looking ahead to future climate scenarios, particularly a 2.6 °C increase in global temperatures, most models suggest an escalation in rainfall intensity compared to 2025. This indicates a growing acknowledgment of climate change signals under heightened warming conditions. The cumulative evidence suggests that climate change has amplified the rainfall leading to the recent flooding in southern Botswana, though the exact quantification of this effect remains uncertain.
The majority of flood-related impacts in February were concentrated in urban areas, where historical flooding has occurred even without extreme rainfall events. The existing infrastructure failed to cope, resulting in overwhelmed roads, drainage channels, and health facilities. Ongoing initiatives aim to bolster flood resilience through enhanced drainage systems, land-use regulations, and disaster preparedness. By focusing on highlighted risks through multi-hazard evaluations, cities can enhance future resilience against extreme weather events.
The severe flooding in southern Botswana and eastern South Africa in February 2025 was primarily driven by heavy rainfall combined with rapid urbanization and climate change influences. The region’s inadequate drainage infrastructure exacerbated the impacts, leading to significant loss of life and widespread disruption. Ongoing efforts to enhance flood resilience through improved infrastructure and disaster preparedness are critical. A comprehensive approach integrating multi-hazard assessments will be essential in mitigating the effects of future extreme weather events.
Original Source: www.preventionweb.net
