The article discusses the looming threat of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, arising from internal political strife in Tigray and regional rivalries. It highlights the dangers of a breakdown in the Pretoria Agreement and the potential for widespread destabilization in Northeast Africa, necessitating immediate diplomatic interventions by Gulf states and Western allies.
The impending conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea poses a significant threat to stability in the Red Sea region. Following the cessation of hostilities in late 2022, which concluded one of the deadliest wars of the 21st century, the situation has deteriorated due to internal political strife within Tigray and the rivalry between the Ethiopian federal government and Eritrea. The humanitarian crisis continues to escalate, with estimates of over 600,000 casualties from the previous conflict.
The Pretoria Agreement, which aimed to establish an interim administration in Tigray, is currently at risk as rival factions vie for control. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has seen its influence wane since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018. His leadership has fostered animosity among political factions, particularly between the TPLF and the interim administration, leading to potential military escalations as commanders and troops show allegiance to differing factions.
The mobilization of armed forces on all sides—Ethiopia’s military, Eritrean Defense Forces, and Tigray Defense Forces—signals an imminent threat of renewed violence. Regional rivalries, particularly among Gulf nations vying for dominance over the Red Sea, further complicate the situation. Saudi Arabia, wary of Ethiopia’s alignment with the UAE, exacerbates tensions in an already fragile geopolitical landscape.
Furthermore, historical grievances between Eritrea and Ethiopia add another layer of complexity. The Pretoria Agreement has diminished the military cooperation that once developed after Abiy’s rapprochement with Eritrea. Current accusations of undermining and belligerent posturing aggravate relations, igniting fears of a wider conflict that could engulf neighboring nations such as Sudan.
The potential for the violence to expand beyond Ethiopia and Eritrea is daunting, with existing humanitarian crises in Sudan and the risks of conflict spilling over into the Sahel region. The ongoing instability in the Horn of Africa feeds into a larger context of international diplomatic erosion, where the respect for recognized borders remains precarious.
To avert catastrophe, proactive and coordinated diplomatic interventions by the Gulf states alongside Western allies are crucial. Engaging local actors and leveraging regional influence might provide necessary avenues for conflict resolution. Without immediate and effective actions, unchecked ambitions could lead to escalations far more destructive than current crises, perpetuating chaos across Northeast Africa and the Red Sea.
In summary, the prospects for renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea demand urgent attention from both regional powers and international stakeholders. The fragility of the Pretoria Agreement, compounded by internal Tigrayan divisions and external geopolitical rivalries, underlines the need for immediate diplomatic efforts. Failure to establish a cooperative approach may dismantle stability in the already volatile Horn of Africa, with far-reaching consequences for the Red Sea region.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
