The ceasefire in Gaza has collapsed following extensive Israeli airstrikes, ending a temporary cessation of hostilities and highlighting Israeli internal pressures. Meanwhile, the US has launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen as part of a broader strategy to pressure Iran, complicating prospects for a new nuclear deal amid Iran’s domestic turmoil.
In recent weeks, attention has shifted from Ukraine to the collapsing ceasefire in Gaza, significantly influenced by agreements brokered by former President Donald Trump. Following unsuccessful negotiations with Hamas, Israel halted humanitarian aid to Gaza and, by March 17, launched extensive airstrikes resulting in the deaths of over 400 individuals. This military action has led many to believe that the ceasefire deal has officially disintegrated.
Middle East expert Scott Lucas at University College Dublin asserts that the Israeli airstrikes mark the end of the ceasefire that had temporarily paused hostilities in Gaza. The initial phase of this ceasefire ended on March 1, after exchanges of hostages. Prime Minister Netanyahu, facing intense pressure from hard-right factions and the families of hostages, has no intentions of accepting a comprehensive ceasefire while Hamas remains a threat.
Currently, Israel lacks a long-term strategy for Gaza, with Netanyahu focusing on hostage negotiations to alleviate his political challenges, including his bribery trial. Although dreams of a depopulated Gaza exist among some Israeli factions, these ambitions are overshadowed by ongoing violence and the disastrous humanitarian situation.
Former President Trump initially reveled in his role as a peacemaker but appears more focused on using the situation to blame Hamas now that the ceasefire has collapsed. In reaction to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, the US has conducted airstrikes against Houthi positions, seen as a means to send a strong message to Iran while maintaining domestic support.
These offensive strikes against Houthi rebels allow Trump to project strength while simultaneously avoiding direct confrontation with Iran. Analysts note that the Iranian regime is currently preoccupied with significant economic and social issues, which likely inhibit a robust response against US actions in Yemen. Iran’s economic struggles are profound, with soaring inflation rates and increasing unemployment fueling domestic discontent.
The challenges faced by Iran may impact the potential for a new nuclear agreement, but US pressure tactics, notably through aggressive military operations, can complicate diplomatic efforts. Iranian leaders have expressed skepticism towards US negotiation overtures, perceiving them as insincere. History suggests that significant changes in Iranian policy are unlikely without substantial reasons, such as the threat of economic collapse, rather than coercive military actions.
In summary, the collapse of the Gaza ceasefire highlights ongoing tensions between Israel and Hamas, driven by political pressures and military actions. Concurrently, US airstrikes in Yemen against Houthi forces reflect broader strategic aims to counter Iranian influence, amid domestic and international complexities. The state of Iran’s internal challenges poses serious obstacles to future nuclear negotiations, suggesting that successful diplomacy requires more than coercive military posturing.
Original Source: theconversation.com
