The article outlines the perilous rise towards conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, driven by Abiy Ahmed’s authoritarian regime and historical ethnic divisions. The potential for renewed war raises alarms for the stability of the Horn of Africa, as both leaders use conflict to consolidate power amid internal dissent. Diplomatic engagement is emphasized as essential to avert catastrophic outcomes and address the underlying tensions fueling nationalism and aggression.
The current situation in Ethiopia signifies a dangerous escalation towards potential war with Eritrea, driven by a toxic blend of ethnic fragmentation and autocratic regimes. The recent governmental rhetoric concerning the annexation of Eritrea’s coastline harkens back to the imperial ambitions of Haile Selassie, suggesting that under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, similar aggressive sentiments are being revived. This revival of nationalism poses the real threat of renewed conflict, urging regional observers to remain vigilant.
Abiy Ahmed’s rule is marred by authoritarianism, though he presents himself as a reformist. Ethiopia’s long-standing socio-political divides have escalated into questions of his regime’s legitimacy. The notion that Ethiopia’s fragmentation is a recent phenomenon is part of a broader propaganda strategy to absolve previous administrations of blame. The establishment of ethnic federalism under Meles Zenawi laid foundational tensions that continue to destabilize the nation.
For Abiy, conflict with Eritrea is not simply about territorial claims but is seen as a strategic necessity for consolidating power amid growing internal dissent. Ethnic violence threatens his regime, pushing him to consider war as a distraction that could unify citizens against a common external enemy. The necessity for a unified purpose in the face of internal unrest underscores his desperation to maintain control.
Abiy’s inclination towards irredentism reflects his need for political survival rather than genuine territorial ambition. His government co-opts narratives of national security to undermine internal dissenters like the FANO and Oromo Liberation Army, which positions him precariously. Opening a new front with Eritrea could exacerbate Ethiopia’s vulnerabilities, as military resources are already stretched thin.
The consequences of war in this region could be catastrophic, potentially reigniting broader instability in the already tumultuous Horn of Africa. Neighboring countries like Sudan and South Sudan are experiencing severe unrest, and further strife from Ethiopia would catalyze greater chaos. Somalia’s persistent crisis further complicates regional security dynamics, heightening the risks should conflict with Eritrea ignite.
While Eritrea under Isaias Afewerki has historically maintained a rigid, isolationist stance, it remains prepared to retaliate if provoked. Thus, the implications of an armed confrontation would reverberate throughout the Horn of Africa, drawing international attention and involvement. Proactive diplomatic engagement is essential to mitigate impending disasters, particularly as Abiy Ahmed’s administration appears willing to engage in extreme measures to secure its authority.
The Tigray War illustrates the premeditated nature of Ethiopia’s current conflicts, wherein both Abiy and Afewerki strategically aimed to eliminate the TPLF as a threat to their power. This collaboration resulted in immense casualties and suffering, demonstrating that the Tigray conflict served as a means to solidify both regimes rather than as a fight for justice or stability.
Despite the ceasefire with Tigray, the peace agreement has failed to address or resolve the underlying tensions instigated by Abiy and Afewerki’s militaristic ambitions. Tigray’s resistance remains a potent force; Abiy’s attempts to suppress dissenting voices have merely delayed a larger reckoning. For Eritrea, Afewerki’s power depended on maintaining animosity towards Tigray and portraying any opposition as a threat.
The grim toll from the Tigray War raises critical questions about Afewerki’s nationalism versus his autocratic tendencies, as Eritrea now stands stripped of its former spirit of independence under dictatorial rule. The war has become a tool for both leaders to extend their authority, sacrificing traditional nation-state principles in the process. Afewerki’s proclamations of victory fail to resonate with citizens mourning sacrifices made during past conflicts for true independence.
The trajectory of Ethiopia and Eritrea implicates the potential for a renewed regional conflict rooted in deep-seated political and ethnic strife. Abiy Ahmed’s regime, characterized by authoritarianism and escalating nationalistic rhetoric, seeks to exploit external threats to consolidate power internally. Diplomatic intervention is critical to defuse tensions and prevent the catastrophic fallout of a war that would not only impact the two nations but the entire Horn of Africa. Historical grievances, compounded by current instability, highlight the urgent need for solutions that prioritize peace over conflict, ensuring that the sacrifices of the past are not repeated for the sake of power.
Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu
