The article discusses the escalating violence in South Sudan, particularly involving the White Army militia and government responses. Tensions between the Nuer and Dinka communities are worsening, risking a return to civil war. Key actions for stabilization include fostering dialogue, demobilization, and international engagement to address underlying issues. The ongoing situation recalls past conflicts and emphasizes the need for effective peace initiatives.
Recently, South Sudan has witnessed a surge in political tensions and violence, particularly in the Upper Nile State, escalating fears of a potential return to civil war. In early March 2025, Uganda dispatched troops to South Sudan at the government’s urging, which included aerial bombings. This intervention prompted opposition groups to withdraw from negotiations intended to create a unified military system, threatening the fragile 2018 power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir and opposition leaders including First Vice-President Riek Machar. Jan Pospisil, an expert on South Sudan’s political landscape, examines the factors driving this rising discontent.
As of March 2025, the White Army, a militia representing the Nuer community, launched strikes against the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) in Nasir County, resulting in significant casualties, including nearly 50 deaths. The White Army attributes its actions to defending its community against oppressive state forces. This recent violence mirrors historical conflicts but has escalated dangerously, with government retaliations such as aerial bombardments further heightening tensions and undermining peace efforts.
The ongoing conflict is deeply rooted in historical animosities between the Nuer and Dinka communities, especially following the 1991 SPLM split that sparked internal strife. The White Army emerged as a community defense militia during the 1990s and has operated independently from important political movements, making it essential to distinguish its actions from broader opposition strategies.
In comparison to the 2013 civil war, the latest outbreak of violence appears driven more by provocation than centralized political directives. Events escalated in February 2025, when a confrontation with the army led to retaliatory violence, culminating in the White Army’s control over Nasir and military barracks by early March.
In light of these developments, the SPLM-led government has sought to blame opposition parties for the violence, resulting in the arrests of key opposition figures. This narrative undermines the historical context of the White Army’s independent operations and reflects an attempt by the government to distract from its failures.
To prevent a return to civil war, fostering dialogue and promoting community demobilization are crucial. The government should cease the indiscriminate arrest of opposition officials and refrain from attacks on civilians. Engaging community leaders can facilitate negotiations, particularly with influential members of the White Army to help ease tensions. The impending rainy season, beginning in April, presents a strategic interval for peace efforts.
The international community has largely responded with verbal condemnations of the violence but has fallen short on actionable measures. The UN mission in South Sudan has called for restraint but must also recognize the complexities surrounding the White Army’s role. Clear condemnation of opposition arrests is necessary to prevent fostering a narrative that advocates for violent government responses. The UN’s emphasis on de-escalation and addressing the root grievances is imperative for fostering long-term stability.
In conclusion, the rising violence in South Sudan, primarily from the White Army’s recent actions, signifies a troubling escalation that threatens the fragile peace established by the 2018 power-sharing agreement. Historical tensions between the Nuer and Dinka communities, combined with government responses to crises, highlight that the situation remains volatile. It is essential for the South Sudanese government and the international community to focus on dialogue and demobilization in order to avert a return to civil war. Engagement with community leaders, refraining from arbitrary arrests, and addressing underlying grievances are crucial steps in achieving a peaceful resolution to the ongoing conflict. The coming rainy season offers a unique opportunity for these efforts, but sustained commitment from all parties involved is necessary for lasting peace.
Original Source: theconversation.com
