The rise in violence and political tensions in South Sudan, particularly in Upper Nile State, has sparked concerns of a possible return to civil war. Uganda’s military intervention and internal government crackdowns on opposition further complicate the situation. The White Army’s actions and historical grievances highlight the ongoing ethnic conflicts. Efforts for stability necessitate dialogue and international accountability to prevent escalation.
Rising political tensions and escalating violence in South Sudan have raised fears of a potential return to civil war. Following the request of the South Sudanese government, Uganda deployed troops and engaged in aerial bombardments in early March 2025. Opposition groups condemned this intervention, which jeopardizes the 2018 power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar, a deal that previously halted a five-year civil war. Researcher Jan Pospisil explores the factors contributing to this growing discontent.
The current situation in South Sudan is marked by increased violence. In early March 2025, the White Army, a Nuer militia, attacked South Sudan People’s Defence Forces in Upper Nile State, resulting in nearly 50 casualties. The White Army claims it acted in self-defense, representing one of South Sudan’s significant ethnic groups. The violence, part of a troubling continuum from previous years, has intensified due to the government’s aggressive military response and accusations against opposition leaders.
Historical animosities between the Nuer and Dinka communities fuel the conflict, exacerbated by the 1991 split of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). This division led to the creation of splinter factions, with the White Army emerging primarily for community defense and cattle raiding during the 1990s. Its autonomy complicates the narrative concerning its actions, as it is often mischaracterized as part of a coordinated opposition strategy.
The current tensions differ from the 2013 civil war’s onset. At that time, Nasir experienced widespread violence as military operations aimed to punish the Nuer for historical grievances. In contrast, the recent White Army attacks appear driven by specific provocations rather than centralized orders. Incidents of violence, such as the February 2025 attack on soldiers collecting firewood, have further escalated animosities, leading to significant military casualties and prompting a government crackdown that has included the arrest of key opposition figures.
To mitigate the risks of renewed conflict, it is essential to promote dialogue and community demobilization efforts. The government should avoid arbitrary arrests fueled by embarrassment, while refraining from indiscriminate military actions against civilians. Engaging community leaders from the White Army in negotiations could be pivotal in reducing hostilities, especially as the rainy season could hinder large-scale military operations, providing a unique opportunity for confidence-building between Nuer communities and the national army.
International responses to the crisis have been largely limited to verbal condemnations, failing to address the complex dynamics of the conflict. The UN mission has called for restraint but has not sufficiently recognized the independent nature of the White Army’s actions. Highlighting unjustified arrests of opposition members is critical for accountability and preserving the peace transition. Emphasis on de-escalation and political solutions addressing deeper grievances is imperative to prevent further violence.
To summarize, the escalating violence and political tensions in South Sudan pose a significant threat to stability, reminiscent of historical conflicts between the Nuer and Dinka communities. Addressing these issues requires a multifaceted approach that includes dialogue, community engagement, and a critical reassessment of government actions. The international community must also take active steps to advocate for restraint and political solutions that target the root causes of dissent, providing a pathway towards peace and security.
Original Source: theconversation.com
