Renewed tensions in Tigray are prompting civilian flight amid increasing military activities by Eritrean and Ethiopian forces. The revival of conflict is linked to Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access and internal power struggles within the TPLF. The failure of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement to stabilize the region exacerbates divisions, raising concerns over a potential full-scale conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The situation in Tigray is deteriorating, with civilians fleeing due to fears of renewed conflict as Eritrean and Ethiopian military forces increase their presence along the border. The tensions are fueled by Ethiopia’s desire for access to the Red Sea and a power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), threatening to ignite a full-scale war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Internal divisions within the TPLF, particularly between President Getachew Reda and Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, have been exacerbated by Eritrean involvement. Reda’s leadership appointment in May 2023 under the Pretoria Agreement has led to criticism of a perceived alliance with the Ethiopian federal government, which may hinder the TPLF’s control over Tigray and lead to further conflict.
Recent clashes on March 11 resulted in significant unrest, with Reda fleeing Addis Ababa after facing resistance from TPLF factions. Security forces aligned with Debretsion seized control of Tigray’s major towns while establishing parallel governance structures, compelling many civilians to withdraw their funds and leave the region amid escalating violence.
Despite a negotiation effort on March 17, which resulted in the appointment of General Tadesse Werede as the new leader of TIRA, high tensions remain. Claims of remobilization among Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and the establishment of alternative governance in various areas suggest that a larger military confrontation is imminent.
Tensions have been exacerbated by the failure of the Pretoria Agreement to stabilize the region. Ethiopia’s non-recognition of the TPLF as a political entity continues to strain relations, alongside unresolved territorial disputes. Eritrea’s exclusion from negotiations has allowed its interventions to persist, further complicating the dynamics between the two nations.
The conflict in Tigray interacts with deepening diplomatic rifts between Eritrea and Ethiopia, with mutual accusations of supporting opposition groups in each other’s territories. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s aim for Red Sea access has intensified existing tensions, particularly as it strategically signed a long-term agreement with Somaliland in early 2024 to secure maritime access, which Eritrea perceives as a threat.
Ethiopia’s military is currently overextended, given its commitments in the Amhara region against Fano militants. This military strain may dissuade Ethiopia from engaging in an outright war with Eritrea, particularly amid fears of ethnic violence, which could further destabilize an already precarious internal situation.
Both nations are similarly entangled in Sudan’s ongoing civil war, backing opposing factions and exacerbating instability within the region. The involvement of external powers, such as the UAE, Iran, and Russia, further complicates the scenario, all while terrorist groups in the Sahel may seek to take advantage of the crisis to expand their influence.
Overall, the interplay of Ethiopia’s internal challenges, Eritrea’s strategic interests, and global geopolitical factors positions the Horn of Africa as a potential flashpoint for significant conflict, with dire implications for the broader region and beyond.
In conclusion, the renewed tensions in Tigray signal troubling prospects for stability in the Horn of Africa. The interplay of Ethiopia’s internal divisions, Eritrea’s strategic pursuits, and external geopolitical interests heightens the risk of escalating conflict. The precarious situation—marked by military mobilization, political strife, and unresolved territorial disputes—poses significant challenges, with the potential for broader regional repercussions if not addressed decisively.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
