The article details the renewed tensions in Tigray, Ethiopia, as civilians flee amid fears of escalating conflict due to increased military presence from Eritrean and Ethiopian forces. It discusses the impact of internal political power struggles and the failures of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which have furthered divisions. The geopolitical implications of these tensions highlight the risk of wider conflict affecting the region.
Renewed tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray region have prompted significant civilian displacement due to fears of impending conflict. Recently, both Eritrean and Ethiopian military forces have increased their presence along the border, signaling a swift decline in relations between the two nations. The backdrop to this unrest includes Ethiopia’s efforts to gain access to the Red Sea and ongoing power struggles within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), raising alarms about a potential escalation into full-scale warfare.
The renewed unrest in Tigray has been fueled by a deepening divide among political figures, particularly within the TPLF. The conflict primarily involves rival factions, led by President Getachew Reda and Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael. Eritrea’s alleged support for Reda’s faction has exacerbated tensions. The fragmentation of Tigray’s governance post-2022 peace agreement has further destabilized the region, igniting fears of renewed conflict reminiscent of the previous Tigray War.
In recent weeks, the situation has worsened markedly following violent clashes on March 11, which resulted in Reda’s retreat to Addis Ababa. His faction’s control over major towns in Tigray is being challenged by Debretsion’s supporters, leading to intense confrontations and the establishment of rival government structures. Civilians are reportedly withdrawing funds and evacuating the region in large numbers, while troop movements by both nations’ military forces indicate the possibility of imminent conflict.
Efforts at negotiation on March 17 briefly saw General Tadesse Werede appointed as TIRA leader, yet tension persists as factions engage in rapid military mobilization. This shift comes amidst the TPLF’s establishment of alternative governance structures in the absence of formal recognition from the Ethiopian government, underpinned by heightened issues surrounding the Pretoria Agreement’s terms, particularly regarding disarmament procedures and unresolved territorial disputes.
Ethiopia and Eritrea’s strained diplomatic relations have aggravated the situation, with accusations of mutual support for domestic opposition groups. Ethiopia’s quest for Red Sea access is highlighted as a contentious issue, with a recent agreement signed with Somaliland fueling Eritrea’s mistrust. Moreover, Ethiopia’s military capacity is stretched due to operations against internal conflicts, such as the Fano rebel group, complicating its ability to engage in broader military actions while concerning many observers about the potential for ethnic violence.
The implications of the escalating instability extend beyond Ethiopia, with both nations embroiled in the civil conflict in Sudan, exacerbating tensions in the region. External actors, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have vested interests in the unfolding situation, indicating a complex geopolitical landscape where local conflicts intersect with broader regional dynamics. There is a growing concern that jihadist groups could exploit the renewed conflict, further destabilizing the Horn of Africa.
Renewed tensions in Tigray, characterized by escalating military activity and political fragmentation, pose a significant threat of broader conflict involving both Ethiopia and Eritrea. The interplay of domestic and geopolitical factors heightens the risk of civil unrest spilling into regional instability. Ongoing struggles for power within the TPLF, along with Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access, further complicate the situation. The potential for external actors and extremist groups to exploit the conditions necessitates close monitoring and strategic engagement to prevent a major conflict in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
