A study reveals that China’s dominance in rare earth materials may shrink from 62% to 28% by 2035, potentially falling to 23% by 2040 due to emerging global competitors from Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland. The research suggests fundamental shifts in the rare earth industry and was led by the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy in China.
A recent study published in the journal Chinese Rare Earths indicates that China’s current dominance in the rare earth market is at risk of significant decline over the next decade. The researchers pointed out that China’s present share, estimated at 62 percent, could plummet to 28 percent by 2035, as new mining sources in Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland begin to emerge.
The research modeling indicates a continuous downward trend, predicting a fall to 23 percent by the year 2040. This projection suggests that China may entirely lose its former dominant position within the global rare earth industry, as the landscape evolves with new competitors. It is noteworthy that China’s heavy rare earths, particularly concentrated in the southern region’s ion-adsorption clays, may face competition from international projects like Greenland’s Kvanefjeld and various initiatives in South America.
This study was conducted by scholars at the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy, located in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, an important hub for rare earth production. Their findings highlight potential ‘fundamental shifts’ that could reshape the industry as new sources of these critical materials are tapped worldwide.
The recent study suggests that China’s dominance over the rare earth market is poised for a significant decline, possibly falling to 28 percent by 2035 and 23 percent by 2040. The emergence of new mining sources in Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland could fundamentally alter the competitive landscape, challenging China’s existing hold on this crucial resource sector. The implications of these shifts may redefine the global market for rare earth materials.
Original Source: www.scmp.com
