The internal conflict within the TPLF escalates risks of renewed violence in Tigray, Ethiopia, with potential spillover into Eritrea, threatening regional stability. The power struggle, marked by a dissident faction’s actions and unresolved military tensions, indicates a looming crisis requiring immediate attention to avert humanitarian disasters.
The ongoing power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has escalated tensions in Ethiopia and raised concerns of potential conflict with Eritrea. Recent actions include a dissident faction’s takeover of the main radio station and the seizure of Adigrat, both notable moves in what has been described as an internal coup. Getachew Reda, the leader of Tigray’s interim administration, has accused rival factions of conspiring with Eritrea to spark renewed civil war and force him from power.
Following the peace deal in 2022 that ended a civil war, the TPLF has been experiencing internal conflict, leading to dissatisfaction among certain factions that feel sidelined. The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), previously neutral, has now allied with one of the competing factions, adding complexity to the situation. The potential for an imminent conflict is stark as reports indicate mobilization among all forces, including Eritrea’s and Ethiopia’s military.
Should hostilities reignite, the ramifications could extend beyond Ethiopia and Eritrea. Observers warn that such a conflict could destabilize the region, potentially drawing in Sudan, which previously supported the TDF. This escalation would have serious humanitarian implications; the last civil war resulted in substantial loss of life, with many still displaced.
Tensions are further compounded by Ethiopia’s isolation from the sea following Eritrea’s independence, raising concerns that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may pursue military solutions to regain access. Increased military activity on both sides indicates that an imminent confrontation may be unavoidable, with profound consequences for regional stability.
In other regional developments, Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have withdrawn from peace talks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo amid sanctions, while diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and South Africa increase following the expulsion of South African Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool. Additionally, environmental issues arise from a toxic mine spill in Zambia, affecting millions reliant on the Kafue River.
The ongoing power struggle within the TPLF poses significant risks not only for Ethiopia but also for the wider region, potentially rekindling hostilities with Eritrea. The internal divisions have led various factions to take radical actions, heightening the urgency for diplomatic solutions to prevent a recurrence of the catastrophic violence seen during the last civil war. As regional instability looms, the consequences will likely extend far beyond Ethiopia’s borders, affecting multiple neighboring nations.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
