Standard Bank anticipates Ghana’s GDP to grow by 5.4% in 2025, supported primarily by the mining sector, particularly gold. Despite challenges in other sectors and potential currency depreciation, the overall economic outlook remains optimistic, provided that fiscal issues are addressed and macroeconomic stability is maintained.
According to Standard Bank, Ghana’s GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2025. Jibran Qureishi, Head of Africa Research at Standard Bank Group, discussed this forecast during the Stanbic Economic Series webinar titled “The Economy Under a New Era.” He cited various factors that contribute to this encouraging economic outlook.
Mr. Qureishi noted that Ghana’s GDP growth demonstrated significant resilience, climbing to 5.8% year-on-year in 2024, up from 2.9% in 2023. This growth represents the fastest increase since 2021, and the forecast indicates continued momentum, with 5.4% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026. The mining sector, particularly gold, is anticipated to be a major growth driver.
The Head of Research highlighted the mining sector’s critical role in Ghana’s economic recovery. He remarked, “There has been a notable pickup in mining activities across the country, with gold leading the charge. Furthermore, the revival of underperforming mines, such as Obuasi, and the upcoming launch of a large lithium facility are expected to enhance growth further.”
Nonetheless, Mr. Qureishi recognized challenges facing other sectors. He stated, “While mining is thriving, non-mineral sectors like manufacturing and real estate continue to face headwinds. Agriculture productivity was also impacted by the dry spell in Northern Ghana last year, which weighed down growth in that sector.”
Mr. Qureishi expressed confidence in Ghana’s economic path, emphasizing the revival of key mining operations. He cautioned, “However, it is crucial to address issues such as arrears in the energy sector and fiscal policy imbalances to sustain this growth momentum.”
Regarding currency performance, he predicted a weakening of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar, potentially reaching GH¢16.4 to $1. He elaborated on structural concerns about foreign exchange flows, noting that major sources of FX revenues, including mining and cocoa, are funneled to the Bank of Ghana instead of the interbank market. He stated, “This reliance on the central bank to manage FX flows underscores the need for prudent economic management.”
Despite the challenges, Mr. Qureishi maintained optimism about Ghana’s economic situation, placing importance on the maintenance of macroeconomic stability.
In summary, Standard Bank projects a GDP growth of 5.4% for Ghana in 2025, bolstered by a resilient mining sector despite challenges in other areas. Jibran Qureishi emphasizes the importance of addressing fiscal imbalances and energy sector arrears to sustain economic growth. Moreover, currency stability remains a concern, underscoring the need for cautious economic governance. Thus, while the outlook is positive, careful management is essential for continued prosperity.
Original Source: www.ghanabusinessnews.com
