Aregawi fears renewed conflict in Tigray as internal power struggles within the TPLF escalate. The TPLF is divided following a failed ceasefire, resulting in violence and instability. While Ethiopia seeks Red Sea access amid tensions with Eritrea, experts caution that failure to manage these conflicts could lead to war. The situation remains precarious with local leaders vying for control and the potential for renewed military action.
Aregawi, who was in the midst of establishing a tour-guiding business, has been deeply affected by the war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which initiated in 2020. After spending two years on the frontlines, he expresses his fears that Tigray is once again nearing conflict. He states, “We don’t want to become a battleground, but it seems like war is near, maybe even inevitable.
The war between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian federal government concluded in 2022, resulting in devastating casualties, including approximately 600,000 deaths and widespread sexual violence, impacting nearly 10% of women aged 15-49 in Tigray, according to a study published by the British Medical Journal. Despite a ceasefire, many provisions, including the repatriation of nearly one million displaced individuals, remain unfulfilled, exacerbating divisions within the TPLF.
Recent tensions escalated significantly this month when Tigray’s interim president, Getachew Reda, attempted to dismiss three high-ranking military commanders after accusing them of a coup. Following this, a rival TPLF faction, led by Debretsion Gebremichael, allegedly executed a coup by placing its officials in provincial offices, including the mayor’s office and the primary radio station in Mekelle, compelling Getachew to flee to Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa.
This political unrest has manifested in violence, with three individuals confirmed dead during a skirmish in Tigray. Additionally, queues have formed outside banks as citizens withdraw cash and flights out of the region are completely booked. A resident reported that “Fear and uncertainty prevail” as many contemplate relocating to safer areas.
Tensions are also rising between Ethiopia and Eritrea, despite their previous military collaboration during the Tigray conflict. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been seeking access to the Red Sea, a strategic goal deemed crucial for Ethiopia, the world’s most populous landlocked nation. Abiy has labeled the loss of Eritrea’s coastline as a significant historical error.
In response, Eritrea has enacted a nationwide mobilization and is purportedly supporting rebel factions in Amhara, while reports indicate that Eritrean intelligence assisted Debretsion’s faction in the recent coup. Ethiopia is reinforcing its military presence along the Eritrean border and its state media is promoting Ethiopia’s assertions over the port of Assab.
General Tsadkan Gebretensae, Tigray’s vice-president, has signaled the potential for renewed military conflict, stating war could erupt “at any moment.” Former US and EU special envoys characterize the situation as “dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite an interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.”
While Prime Minister Abiy has expressed a desire for a peaceful resolution regarding access to the Red Sea, insisting on negotiations under commercial law, it is suggested he may avoid supporting Getachew to bypass further hostilities. Furthermore, the newly appointed leaders in Tigray aim to regain territory currently under Amhara control, suggesting that attempts to reclaim this area could deepen the conflict, as noted by expert Ahmed Soliman from the geopolitical think tank Chatham House. “If there is no agreement, the situation could certainly escalate.”
In conclusion, the political unrest in Tigray, arising from internal power struggles and unresolved ceasefire agreements, raises significant concerns over the potential for renewed conflict in the region. The rivalry within the TPLF and escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea add complexity to an already volatile situation, with experts warning that the dynamics could lead to further violence. Peaceful negotiations and a strategic approach by the Ethiopian government will be critical in averting a crisis.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
