Ethiopia is facing severe political, ethnic, and economic crises, highlighted by internal tensions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, growing resistance from the Amhara and Oromo groups, and an ongoing economic downturn. Abiy Ahmed’s foreign policy attempts, particularly the quest for coastal access and agreements with Somaliland, could exacerbate tensions with neighboring states and lead to wider regional conflicts. Immediate diplomatic action is required to prevent further deterioration.
Ethiopia is currently experiencing a severe political and societal crisis characterized by ethnic tensions, economic difficulties, and escalating instability. The civil war in Tigray from 2020 to 2022 left a lasting impact, and although a peace agreement was reached in Pretoria, the relationship between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) continues to be deeply fractured, hindering long-term peace efforts.
Abiy Ahmed’s government is grappling with internal discord within the TPLF, where divisions have deepened instead of fostering cooperation. While certain factions support the Prime Minister, others reject his authority, raising concerns over the potential for renewed conflicts in Tigray. This instability signifies threats to Ethiopia’s already fragile state and political landscape.
Another critical issue lies with the Amhara ethnic group, which is growing increasingly hostile towards Abiy Ahmed. Many Amhara militias contributed to the military efforts against the TPLF and anticipated that their interests would be recognized post-conflict. The reversal of support from the government, particularly through disarmament initiatives and unresolved territorial disputes, has led to feelings of betrayal and heightened tensions in the region.
The emergence of a new resistance movement within the Amhara region is evident as armed confrontations with the Ethiopian army have increased since 2023. Accusations abound regarding Abiy’s attempts to impose Oromo dominance over the ethnic landscape, creating a volatile situation that prompted the government to declare a state of emergency in response to the persistent clashes.
Simultaneously, Abiy Ahmed faces unrest in Oromia, home to Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, the Oromo. While many initially placed hope in his leadership, discontent has grown due to perceived neglect of Oromo interests. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which has been conducting guerrilla warfare, accuses the government of ignoring their demands and undermining federalism, leading to frequent violent encounters.
Ethiopia is also grappling with a severe economic crisis, where inflation and unemployment have surged, resulting in widespread suffering. The skyrocketing prices of essential commodities have exacerbated food insecurity, compelling more individuals towards armed groups or emigration. The government’s debts to international creditors underscore the need for difficult economic reforms to avert a potential disaster.
As a culmination of these challenges, Ethiopia risks entering a dangerous decline marked by the potential emergence of a failed state, eroding its capacity for stability and security. The shift from a hopeful leader to one perceived as a tyrant intensifies as Abiy’s foreign policy becomes aggressive, masking domestic failures while seeking to refocus attention.
A significant aspect of his foreign strategy involves efforts to regain access to the sea, an issue rooted in Ethiopia’s historical context since losing its coastline following Eritrea’s independence in 1993. Abiy frames this loss as a political tool to rally domestic support, despite the complexities involved in obtaining such access from neighboring states.
Abiy Ahmed’s recent agreement with Somaliland, which offers Ethiopia a 50-year lease for access to the Red Sea, has stirred considerable controversy and tension with Somalia. This agreement has provoked concerns over national sovereignty and potential escalations, making diplomatic relations fraught with uncertainty in the region.
Hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea remains on the rise, with military fortifications reported along their bordered territories. Abiy’s declarations regarding access to the coast are interpreted as direct threats in Asmara, raising alarms over a possible resurgence of conflict that could encompass the broader Horn of Africa.
The regional landscape is precarious, with instabilities jeopardizing not just Ethiopia, but involving neighboring nations such as Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan. An escalating conflict could devolve into humanitarian crises, displacing millions and exacerbating threats posed by drought and economic decline. Immediate impactful diplomatic engagement is essential to evade a potentially catastrophic scenario for the entire region and beyond.
The international community must strive to foster dialogue and prevent further deterioration of the situation, as the specter of renewed conflict looms ominously over the Horn of Africa, with ramifications that extend well beyond its geographic confines.
In summary, Ethiopia’s current multifaceted crisis is underpinned by deep ethnic tensions, political instability, and a dire economic situation, which poses significant risks of conflict and state failure. Abiy Ahmed’s efforts, both domestically and internationally, exhibit a troubling trend towards aggression versus diplomacy. As historical disputes over coastal access and regional relations escalate, the situation remains precarious, necessitating urgent attention and proactive measures from the international community to avert a potential humanitarian disaster and broader regional destabilization.
Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu
