China’s carbon emissions target for 2024 was not met, raising concerns about its ability to achieve carbon neutrality. The country experienced a 3.4% reduction in carbon intensity, falling short of the 3.9% target. China’s reliance on industrial growth has led to increased emissions, despite advancements in renewable energy. Future climate goals depend on substantial structural reforms within its energy sector, as global climate efforts hinge on China’s actions as the largest emitter.
China’s recent failure to meet its carbon emissions reduction target has heightened concerns regarding its capacity to achieve carbon neutrality, a critical element in global climate initiatives. In 2024, China’s carbon intensity decreased by 3.4 percent, which was below the government’s official goal of 3.9 percent, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. Furthermore, the country remains off track to achieve an 18 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2020 to 2025 as outlined in its latest five-year plan.
Under the dual emissions targets established by President Xi Jinping, China aims to peak its emissions by the end of the decade and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. This situation is particularly precarious given that China is the largest global emitter, comprising about 30 percent of total emissions, while also leading in renewable energy investments. The ability to meet these goals is vital for global efforts aimed at limiting temperature rises to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, a threshold deemed necessary by the United Nations to prevent severe climate consequences.
The reality of climate action is further stressed by the unprecedented temperature spikes observed in 2024, marking a record-breaking year where temperatures exceeded the 1.5C mark for the first time. Carbon intensity, a crucial metric reflecting emissions related to economic growth, has exhibited less favorable results; despite ongoing economic expansion, emission reductions have not aligned with anticipated growth measurements. Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst at Ember, remarked, “Even though the economy continued to grow, the reduction in emissions relative to that growth wasn’t as rapid as intended.”
China’s post-COVID-19 economic strategy has heavily leaned on industrial growth, leading to increased energy demands. In 2024, electricity demand surged by 6.8 percent while carbon emissions rose by 0.8 percent. Additionally, extreme weather conditions have hindered emission reduction efforts, interrupting energy generation from hydropower and necessitating a reliance on coal power to meet demands.
Despite these challenges, China has made substantial advancements in renewable energy sources. According to Eric Fishman, a senior manager at the Lantau Group, in 2023, wind and solar power contributed 14.5 percent to the country’s overall energy needs, with hydropower accounting for another 13.4 percent. He noted that 75 percent of the increase in energy demand—totalling around 500 out of 610 terawatt hours—was met through renewables, equating to a significant clean energy output comparable to Germany’s annual consumption.
This transformative growth has largely been driven by government interventions, including the directives of the Chinese Communist Party. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of transitioning toward an “ecological civilization” and has established the world’s largest carbon trading market through the Emissions Trading Scheme. Anika Patel, a China analyst at Carbon Brief, highlighted Xi’s recent call for a shift towards high-quality production and innovation, stating that China is transitioning from traditional manufacturing to green technologies.
Looking ahead, the Chinese Communist Party intends to announce new carbon emission reduction targets for 2026 to 2030, significantly shaping both the public and private sectors. Yao Zhe from Greenpeace East Asia suggested that while China is anticipated to reach peak carbon emissions before 2030, the long-term elimination of coal remains in question. Yao stated, “Achieving carbon neutrality will require many more structural changes in China’s energy sector and economy as a whole. And those changes need to start soon after peak.”
Overall, these developments underscore the critical need for China to execute effective structural reforms and enhance its commitment to sustainable energy solutions to meet its ambitious climate goals and fulfill its role in global climate action.
In conclusion, China’s failure to meet its carbon intensity targets illustrates significant challenges in its pursuit of carbon neutrality and underlines its pivotal role in global climate efforts. Despite advancements in renewable energy, the rising carbon emissions, driven by economic recovery and energy demands, raise concerns about future climate commitments. As the international community continues to monitor China’s actions, the successful implementation of structural reforms within the energy sector will be essential to ensure that China not only meets its targets but also contributes effectively to global climate stabilization efforts.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
