Al-Shabab has regained momentum in Somalia, regaining strategic regions and posing a renewed threat to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, following a significant bomb attack. Analysts highlight a concerning trend of government retreats amidst decreasing support from international partners like the U.S. and the African Union, while political distractions further exacerbate the conflict. The situation remains complex, with differing opinions on Al-Shabab’s threat level to Mogadishu.
The Al-Shabab militia in Somalia has demonstrated signs of resurgence after recent territorial gains, including a failed assassination attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud via a roadside bomb. The extremist group had previously been on the defensive during 2022 and 2023 due to a coordinated military campaign by the government and international allies, yet analysts indicate that these advances are being reversed as support from the United States and the African Union dwindles.
Al-Shabab has seized critical locations in the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions, adjacent to the capital, Mogadishu. A significant bomb blast targeting the president’s convoy on March 18 highlights the militia’s renewed threat in the capital. On Wednesday, Somali officials reported that Al-Shabab had taken control of a crucial town, Masaajid Cali Gaduud, following the president’s visit to the area aimed at countering the militants.
Residents like Abdulkadi Hassan reported heavy explosions and gunfire, indicating a retreat of Somali government forces and local militias, allowing Al-Shabab to assert control. Analyst Matt Bryden noted that recent clashes reflect a government in disarray, having lost strategic chokepoints, including vital bridges in Lower Shabelle. He pointed out that the government is now relying on clan militias and local forces in a bid to stabilize the situation.
The fear among residents in Mogadishu is that the government may struggle to secure the city, leading to concerns about Al-Shabab potentially encircling it. The president remains resolute, proclaiming that the military efforts will continue unceasingly. However, the government’s prospects are threatened by diminishing international support, specifically the potential reduction in funding from the U.S. and Europe.
Although the African Union has renewed its mission in Somalia under the AUSSOM banner, the U.S. has yet to finalize its financial commitment, raising concerns about the adequacy of security assistance. Bryden indicated that if current trends persist, Al-Shabab could capitalize on shifting balances of power as early as July.
Other analysts maintain that while Al-Shabab is gaining ground, it is still far from posing a significant threat to Mogadishu, attributing its recent advancements to the government’s distraction with political matters. Omar Mahmood from the International Crisis Group emphasized the disunity within the country, linked to struggles surrounding electoral plans. He characterizes the ongoing conflict as reaching a stalemate rather than an imminent march toward the capital.
In summary, the resurgence of Al-Shabab in Somalia marks a significant challenge for the government, particularly amid decreasing international support. Despite recent territorial gains and serious threats to Mogadishu, analysts hold mixed views regarding the militia’s capacity to jeopardize the city’s security. The complex interplay of local grievances, political distractions, and diminished military assistance from global partners complicates the situation, potentially leading to a stalemate rather than a decisive advance by Al-Shabab.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
