The Syrian civil war’s revival poses challenges for Israel as it weighs the implications of a weakened Assad regime, influenced by competing factions like Iranian-supported Shia jihadists and Turkish-backed Sunni rebels. Israel aims to avoid direct involvement while strategically undermining enemy influence. Turkey seeks to resettle refugees, while Iran fights to maintain its foothold. Russia’s support for Assad remains vital amid its own geopolitical struggles, complicating the conflict’s trajectory and implications for regional stability.
The resurgence of the Syrian civil war has prompted many Israelis to reflect on their stance regarding the ongoing conflict. Specifically, they ponder whether they should be concerned about Iranian-backed Shia extremists or Turkish-backed Sunni jihadists settling near their border. With neither option favorable, Israeli strategy is to avoid direct involvement unless its security is threatened. Historically, like former Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir during the Iran-Iraq war, Israel adopts a perspective of hoping both sides deplete each other’s strength.
The renewed fighting commenced on November 27, led by a coalition of Sunni jihadists, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army against Aleppo, capturing much of the city and threatening Hama. This conflict’s escalation stemmed from the broader regional implications initiated by Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel. The subsequent increase in Hezbollah’s hostility led to Operation Northern Arrows, aimed at restoring peace in Northern Israel by targeting Hezbollah’s operational capabilities.
This context offered an opportune moment for Syrian rebels to act against Assad as alliances like Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia faced limitations due to their preoccupations elsewhere, notably in Ukraine. The high-profile ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel coincidentally aligned with the rebels’ offensive, suggesting a coordinated strategy to reclaim power in Syria, while the aftermath of Hamas’s actions continues to reshape Middle Eastern dynamics.
Israel remains an indirect but pivotal actor in this conflict, focusing on undermining Iranian and Hezbollah influence while seeking a stable, weakened Syrian regime that will not pose threats in the future. It desires a scenario where Syria looks towards moderate Sunni states rather than becoming too reliant on Iran, which is facilitated by Assad’s precarious position. Should Assad be overthrown, Israel fears the ensuing chaos could lead to a Sunni extremist regime, presenting a lack of predictability in contrast to the existing status quo.
Turkey, as a supporter of the rebelling factions, aims to resettle approximately 3.5 million refugees and regain territory lost to Kurdish forces, thus complicating the situation as they seek an accord with Assad, further emphasizing the multi-faceted nature of the conflict. Iran, meanwhile, recognizes the loss of its influence in Syria as the rebels gain traction, with its military dependency on non-Hezbollah forces posing additional challenges.
Russia, having initially intervened in Syria to bolster Assad and expand its influence, now faces internal challenges as its support for Assad wanes in light of the uprising against him. The Kremlin’s attempts to preserve its foothold in Syria while managing ongoing military commitments in Ukraine highlight the complexities enveloping the region. As the civil war reignites, the outcomes will profoundly affect Israel’s security calculations, thus requiring vigilant monitoring of developments as they unfold.
The Syrian civil war, which erupted in 2011, has seen various factions embroiled in conflict, each with distinct ideological motivations. A new phase in this conflict emerged following the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel, which catalyzed responses from Hezbollah and redirected focus to Syria’s political landscape. The recent rebel advancements indicate a window of opportunity for Sunni factions amid the weakening of Assad’s backers—namely Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia—stirring fears and strategic recalibrations from neighboring nations, especially Israel. Israel’s historical stance of maintaining a cautious distance while intervening selectively aligns with the current milieu, emphasizing a balance of power that favors its long-term security interests while also navigating unpredictable territorial shifts influenced by external actors.
As the Syrian civil war escalates anew, various interest groups, including Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Russia, are recalibrating their strategies within the region. Israel aims to maintain a weakened yet stable Assad regime to avoid chaos that could arise from a power vacuum. In contrast, Turkey seeks to reinforce its position through the support of rebel factions, while Iran and Russia grapple with diminishing influence. The situation invites closer scrutiny from Israel, highlighting the complexities of regional dynamics amidst a landscape riddled with shifting alliances and objectives.
Original Source: www.jpost.com
